The Detroit Pistons (30-37) look to put an end to their 10-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Denver Nuggets (37-31) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 15, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Detroit.
Denver opened as a 7.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 216 points.
Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The last time the Pistons played, they were thoroughly outplayed by the Utah Jazz, 110-79. Utah’s 31.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Detroit, who had a mark of 16.3. The Jazz’s mark was above their season average of 20.9, while the Pistons’ was below their season average of 23.1. Andre Drummond played well for Detroit, putting up 13 points and 11 rebounds.
The Nuggets lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in their last matchup, 112-103. Los Angeles’ rebounding was their biggest strength. The Lakers had more offensive rebounds (12 vs. five), defensive rebounds (40 vs. 39) and total rebounds (52 vs. 44). Denver’s Wilson Chandler put together a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 26 points on 11-for-16 shooting.
Denver figures to have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Nuggets currently rank sixth in effective field goal percentage (0.536), while Detroit ranks 20th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.528). Furthermore, the Pistons rank 28th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.170), while the Nuggets rank fifth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.175).
Detroit holds records of 30-37 straight up (SU) and 29-36-2 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Pistons tend to go under the total (55.2 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 37-31 SU and 31-34-3 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Nuggets games, with an even split between overs and unders.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Jamal Murray scored a game-high 28 points in the first matchup, in which the Nuggets, who were 7-point underdogs, beat the Pistons 103-84. The game finished with a total of 187 points, which was 24 points below the projected point total of 211 points. Denver’s 0.570 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Detroit, who had a mark of 0.411.
Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Detroit is 14-17-1 ATS on the road with 19 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
Denver is 19-16-1 ATS at home with 18 overs and 18 unders.
When allowing less than 100 points, Denver is 13-2 and Detroit is 16-6.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Pistons are 26-16 and the Nuggets are 31-22.
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (25.0) while Detroit ranks 27th in assists allowed per game (24.9).
The Pistons rank sixth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Nuggets rank 27th (18.8).
Detroit ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (9.2) while Denver ranks 19th (12.5).
The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while the Pistons rank 18th (43.6).
Denver ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.7) while Detroit ranks 21st in three pointers allowed per game (30.2).
The Nuggets rank 18th in blocks per game (4.6) while the Pistons rank 28th (3.8).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.4) while Detroit ranks 14th (44.1).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (13.7) while the Pistons rank 10th (13.0).
Detroit ranks 17th in steals per game (7.6) while Denver ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (8.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Detroit is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Pistons’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.6, up from 1.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 114.6 points per game (5.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.6 points per game (4.7 above their season average).
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