In their final home game of the season, the Memphis Grizzlies (21-58) host the Detroit Pistons (38-41) at FedExForum. The game can be seen on NBATV at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 8, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 203.5 points with Detroit set as a 5.5-point favorite.
Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies Free Prediction
The last time the Pistons played, they beat the Dallas Mavericks, 113-106. Detroit’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas. The Pistons had a rate of 0.565 (above their season average of 0.510), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.505. Andre Drummond had a solid performance for Detroit, finishing with 19 points, 16 rebounds and five assists.
The Grizzlies lost a close one to the Sacramento Kings in their last outing, 94-93. Sacramento’s 0.506 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Memphis, who had a mark of 0.476. The Kings’ mark was above their season average of 0.503, while the Grizzlies’ was below the 0.545 mark opponents have averaged against Sacramento this season. Memphis’ Ivan Rabb had 12 points and 11 rebounds in the game.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Memphis. Memphis ranks 27th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.9 percent), while the disruptive defense of Detroit forces the ninth-most turnovers in the league (14.4 percent).
Detroit comes into the game with records of 38-41 straight up (SU) and 38-38-3 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Pistons have finished under the total 54.4 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Memphis is 21-58 SU and 33-43-3 ATS. Much like Detroit, a little over half of Grizzlies games have finished under the projected point total.
Anthony Tolliver has averaged 16.2 points over the last five games for Detroit.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Blake Griffin scored a game-high 24 points and the Pistons beat the Grizzlies 104-102 but did not cover as 8.5-point favorites. He also had 10 rebounds and five assists. The game finished with a total of 206 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 201 points. The Pistons knocked down 27 of their 37 free throws (73.0 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 8.1).
Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Detroit is 20-18-1 ATS with 24 unders, 14 overs and 1 push.
At home, Memphis is 17-22-1 ATS with 26 unders and 14 overs.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Detroit is 21-6 and Memphis is 13-12.
When scoring over 100 points, the Grizzlies are 16-22 and the Pistons are 34-18.
Detroit ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (9.6) while Memphis ranks 24th (14.1).
The Grizzlies rank ninth in assists allowed per game (21.9) while the Pistons rank 27th (25.1).
Detroit ranks 14th in rebounds per game (43.9) while Memphis ranks 29th (40.6).
The Grizzlies rank 13th in blocks per game (4.9) while the Pistons rank 25th (3.9).
Detroit averages 16.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 14th in the league. Memphis ranks 20th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
The Pistons rank 17th in steals per game (7.6) while the Grizzlies rank 21st in steals allowed per game (8.0).
Memphis ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.1) while Detroit ranks eighth (43.3).
The Pistons rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (11.3) while the Grizzlies rank eighth (11.4).
Memphis averages 26.2 three pointers per game, which ranks 23rd in the NBA. Detroit ranks 24th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Detroit is 3-1-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Pistons have outscored opponents by an average of 5.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Detroit has lost by an average of 0.3 points.
During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 98.2 points per game (0.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.0 points per game (3.1 above their season average).
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