The Detroit Pistons (13-8) will try to slow down the league’s top scoring team when they go head-to-head against the Milwaukee Bucks (15-7) at Fiserv Forum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 5, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 227.5 points with Milwaukee opening as an 8-point favorite.
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks Free Prediction
The Pistons were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs in their 110-83 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last contest. The game’s combined points (193) finished well under the O/U total of 218. Oklahoma City’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Detroit. The Thunder had a rate of 0.547 (above their season average of 0.503), while the Pistons posted a mark of 0.362 (below their season average of 0.499). Blake Griffin led Detroit in scoring with 20 points on 7-for-18 shooting.
The last time the Bucks played, they dropped a close one to the New York Knicks, 136-134, despite being 8-point favorites. The game’s total points (270) came in well over the O/U total of 230.5. New York’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Milwaukee. The Knicks had a rate of 0.635 (above their season average of 0.487), while the Bucks posted a mark of 0.585. Giannis Antetokounmpo put together a good performance for Milwaukee, leading both teams in scoring with 33 points on 10-for-17 shooting.
After splitting four games last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last matchup, the Pistons won 110-87. The Pistons had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (43.1 vs. 14.6) and had a much better turnover percentage (7.9 vs. 13.2).
Detroit heads into the game with records of 13-8 straight up (SU) and 12-9 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Pistons’ games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 15-7 SU and 11-11 ATS. Of the Bucks’ 22 games, 15 have finished over the O/U total.
Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon have played well over the last five games for Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo has averaged 32 points,13.6 rebounds,7.4 assists,1.8 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Brogdon has put up 19 points,4.2 assists a game during that span.
The elite offense of Milwaukee (first in the league with an effective field goal percentage 0.567) will clash against the mid-tier defense of Detroit (12th in effective field goal percentage allowed 0.515). The Bucks figure to have the edge on that side of the ball.
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks Odds Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Detroit is 6-2 ATS with 5 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Milwaukee is 8-5 ATS with 9 overs and 4 unders.
When allowing under 100 points, Detroit is 2-0 and Milwaukee is 3-0.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Bucks are 15-7 and the Pistons are 13-5.
Detroit ranks fifth in three pointers allowed per game (28.3) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (35.5).
The Bucks rank second in assists per game (27.4) while the Pistons rank 25th (21.4).
Milwaukee ranks seventh in blocks per game (6.0) while Detroit ranks 28th (3.8).
The Bucks rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.6) while the Pistons rank 21st (50.3).
Detroit ranks fifth in second chance points per game (15.3) while Milwaukee ranks 19th (12.7).
The Bucks rank 1 in rebounds per game (50.5) while the Pistons rank 15 in rebounds allowed per game (44.76190476190476).
Detroit ranks 3 in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.047619047619047) while Milwaukee ranks 7 (15.590909090909092).
The Bucks lead the NBA with 9.136363636363637 fast break points allowed per game while the Pistons are 3 with 10.428571428571429 fast break points allowed per game.
Detroit ranks 5 in steals allowed per game (7.142857142857143) while Milwaukee ranks 6 (7.2272727272727275).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Detroit is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Pistons’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.8, up from 1.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 121.2 points per game (0.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 120.8 points per game (9.5 above their season average).
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