Shane Greene (4-2, 4.21 ERA) and Kyle Lohse (3-4, 5.85 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Detroit Tigers (23-17) and the Milwaukee Brewers (15-25) at Comerica Park. The Brewers won the last game 8-1 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May. 20 and can be seen on FSN-WI and FSN-DET.
Greene pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out four and walking two in a 10-4 win over the Cardinals. Miguel Cabrera (.331, 23 Rs, 10 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Lohse is 7-6 with a 5.66 ERA when pitching against the Tigers. He is up against a good Detroit offense which is hitting .277 this season. Ryan Braun (.259, 23 Rs, 9 HRs, 27 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and four RBIs.
Detroit is a -139 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Tigers have recorded an overall money line of +513 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 15-10. Against the NL, they are winless as the favorite (0-1), but have an SU record of 4-3. The Tigers have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the NL, averaging 3.4 runs per game. They average 4.4 runs per game on the season. The Tigers are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.6 per game. Detroit is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 36 bases. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score runs against the Tigers. The 3.9 runs that Detroit’s pitchers allow per game makes them the fifth-ranked staff in the AL. The Tigers are the third-best team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.5 walks per game so far this season.
In the other locker room, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,034 and a disappointing record of 10-15 as the underdog. Milwaukee is 1-1 as the underdog and 2-2 SU against American League opponents. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.7 runs per game by averaging 4.7 during that stretch. Milwaukee is excellent at not striking out n the road with just 7.8 per game, ranking fifth in the NL. The Brewers allow 5.1 runs per game, but does better whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.2 against teams from the AL.
The Brewers have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Tigers have a 16-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Lohse takes the mound. Greene (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a inferior 11-19 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – DET, O/U – Over
Notes
Milwaukee has won 40% (6-9) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Detroit has won 69% (11-5) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Tigers are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Brewers have a 4-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Tigers, as the Brewers have won their last two games while the Tigers have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 10-2. The Tigers have a 20-3 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 20th, Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 153 this season. Detroit ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 173.
Ranking 26th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 91 this season. Detroit ranks in the top five at fourth with 138.
The Tigers are 16-5 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 14-9 when they hit at least one homer.
