The Minnesota Twins will go for their fourth straight win as they play host to the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. Fox Sports North will showcase the action and the game will get underway at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Odds
Minnesota (-165) is favored over Detroit (+155) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 8.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). The game’s runline odds sit at -140 for taking the Tigers +1.5 runs and +120 for the Twins -1.5.
The Twins are 21-23 SU and 25-18 ATS. They’ve lost 3.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 4.8 units against the spread (ATS). Minnesota has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Tigers are 20-28 SU and have gone 27-20 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 0.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year, but have gained 3.5 units ATS. Detroit has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Minnesota games have had an over/under record of 22-20-1 so far in 2018. The Tigers have an over/under record of 21-25-1.
Michael Fulmer will get the nod for the Tigers. The right-handed Fulmer is 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 46 strikeouts. He has yet to face Minnesota this year, but he did make two starts against the Twins in 2017, putting together a 2-0 record against them with a 3.46 ERA and 14 strikeouts.
The Twins are turning to righty Kyle Gibson (1-2, 3.96 ERA), who’s got 55 strikeouts and 26 walks as well as a 1.32 WHIP. Gibson made six starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 2-2 record in 2017, posting a 2-2 record with a 7.06 ERA.
Minnesota’s pitching staff has yielded 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.08, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.1. The bullpen has a 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In nine games against AL Central opponents, Twins starters have an ERA of 2.81 and the bullpen’s ERA is 1.80.
The Minnesota hitters have produced 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .230/.329/.372 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Left fielder Eddie Rosario and shortstop Eduardo Escobar have led the Twins’ offense this year. Rosario is slashing .285/.309/.529 with nine home runs, 27 RBIs and 29 runs scored, and Escobar is hitting .285 with seven homers, 21 RBIs and 25 runs.
Rosario performed well against righties at home in 2017, slashing .351/.402/.733 across 209 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .290/.328/.507).
In the other dugout, Detroit’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.08 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.68, along with a K/9 of 8.21.
Tigers hitters have slashed .253/.312/.404 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).
Right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and third baseman Jeimer Candelario have led Detroit’s offense. Castellanos is slashing .320/.370/.500 with five home runs, 26 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Candelario (.272/.359/.497) is up to five homers, 16 RBIs and 21 runs scored.
Castellanos did not do as well batting against right-handed pitching on the road in 2017. Across 239 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .212/.264/.360 (compared to his overall season line of .272/.320/.490).
The Tigers have lost 2.9 units and are 19-16 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 13 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 3.8 units and are 19-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 17 of those games, as opposed to 15 that’ve cashed the under.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Tigers have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Twins have hit four over their last 10.
Detroit has recorded 17.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 14.0 over its last five.
The Tigers have lost six of their last seven games SU.
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