Alfredo Simon (7-4, 3.57 ERA) and A.J. Burnett (6-3, 2.01 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Detroit Tigers (39-37) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (43-33) at Comerica Park. The Pirates won the last game 5-4 and Pittsburgh leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and can be seen on ROOT-PIT and FSN-DET.
Simon is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA in his appearances against the Pirates, but goes up against a good Pittsburgh offense which is batting .255 this season. Miguel Cabrera (.349, 42 Rs, 15 HRs, 53 RBIs, 1 SB) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 6. Burnett is 6-3 with a 4.81 ERA against the Tigers in his career. He takes on a quality Detroit offense that’s batting .275. Andrew McCutchen (.296, 40 Rs, 9 HRs, 45 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Pirates, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
Detroit is a -116 favorite against Pittsburgh and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Tigers have an overall money line of -9 and a record as the favorite of 24-19. Against the NL, they have a 3-3 record when they were the favorite and 7-7 SU. The Tigers have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.5 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.4 runs per game. The Tigers lead the AL in hits with an impressive 9.4 per game. Detroit’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.5 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.4.
As for their opponent, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+216), Pittsburgh has an unimpressive 6-14 record when playing as the underdog. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-2 record when playing as the underdog. The Pirates are an excellent base stealing team with 57 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Pirates allow 3.4 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 4.5 runs per game during that span.
The Tigers have a 28-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Burnett takes the mound. Simon (RHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a 34-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – DET, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 42% (13-18) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Detroit has won 53% (17-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Tigers managed to give up eight walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are coming in with a 2-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Tigers are 4-25. The Pirates have an 8-24 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 26th in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 56 this season. Detroit ranks 18th with 67 home runs.
Ranking first in hits, Detroit has earned 9.45 per game this season. Pittsburgh ranks sixth with 8.80 hits.
Ranking 20th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.692). Detroit ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .754.
When the Pirates allow at least one home run, they are 13-23, well-matched with the Tigers who are 16-27 when allowing at least one homer.
