On Wednesday afternoon Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund will square off at Allianz Arena in German Cup (DFB Pokal) semi-final game in order to determine the second team that will play for the DFB Pokal accolade on May 27th, at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. “Der Klassiker” is the kind of a game we never skip and as always, we have the match analysis ready for you so let’s take a closer look.
BAYERN MUNICH vs. BORUSSIA DORTMUND
3-Way: 1: Bayern Munich -154 Home; X: +380 Draw; Borussia Dortmund +550 Away
Spread -1: Bayern Munich -111; Borussia Dortmund +110
Total +3.5: Over +123; Under -130
FC BAYERN MUNICH
The FC Bayern Munich team is going through a relatively rough period as they’ve exited the Champions League last week and surprised their own fans with a 2:2 home draw against Mainz 05 on Saturday in the German Bundesliga Round 30. They are still at the top of the league table with 70 points in 30 games, eight points more than their nearest followers RB Leipzig and there should be no problems in winning another German Bundesliga title but the double crown that would include the DFB Pokal would definitely remedy the season.
After defeating Carl Zeiss Jena (5:0), FC Augsburg (3:1) and VfL Wolfsburg (1:0) in the first three rounds of the competition, the Bayern Munich team defeated FC Schalke 04 in the quarter finals (3:0) and reached the semifinal game where they were luckily drawn as the hosts. Next obstacle is their biggest rival in the German soccer, Borussia Dortmund.
When we look at the stat sheet, Bayern is really moving the bars this season as they posses 21-7-2 league record this season (11-4-0 at home; 10-3-2 away) with a 73-17 goal difference (50-8 at home; 23-9 away). They score 3.33 and concede 0.53 goals per match at home and score 1.53 and concede 0.60 goals per game on the road. In 50% of their overall games this season they haven’t conceded a goal and in 43% of their total matches both team scored at least one goal.
They rank first in the home and the away league table and they scored most and conceded the least goals in the league. In the form league table (last eight games) they rank second with 17 points behind Werder Bremen who has 20 points. Team is 5-2-1 in the last eight games in the league and they are 3-1-0 in the last four home games.
Robert Lewandowski tops the team this season with 26 goals while Arjen Robben has 10 in his account. Lewandowski is also the leading scorer in the DFB Pokal competition this season with five goals. Leading assisters are Thomas Muller and Franck Ribery with 10 each while passing segment belongs to Thiago Alcantara and Mats Hummels with 2173 and 1742 total passes. Goalkeepers Manuel Neuer (26 appearances) and Sven Ulreich (four appearances) collected 61 save and have 15 games with clean sheets combined.
Goalie Manuel Neuer (broken foot) is out for the season while Mats Hummels (ankle), David Alaba (knee) and Jerome Boateng (unknown) are doubtful for Wednesday. Javier Martinez (thigh) is back in training.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
The Borussia Dortmund is also going through a bumpy period both off and on the field. After unfortunate events that don’t have anything to do with soccer and injury of Marc Batrta, team got eliminated in the Champions League quarterfinals with two losses against AS Monaco.
In the Bundesliga, they stand pretty good as they are ranked third with 56 points in 30 games and if they manage to remain on that spot they will qualify for the next year’s Champions League competition but it won’t be easy as Hoffenheim has only one point behind them. In the DFB Pokal competition they went by Eintracht Trier (3:0), Union Berlin (1:1, 3:0 after penalties) and Hertha BSC (1:1, 3:2 after penalties) and then defeated Sportfreunde Lotte in the quarter finals to secure another showdown against their biggest rivals.
Dortmund is 16-8-6 in the league this season (11-3-0 at home; 5-5-6 on the road) with a 65-35 goal difference (35-8 at home, 30-27 on the road). 63% of Borussia’s matches had over 2.5 goals while 37% of their games had over 3.5 goals in total. 19% of their road matches had over 2.5 goals at half-time while in 38% of the matches team conceded at least one goal in both halves.
In 81% of Dortmund road games both team scored while they finished the game with clean sheets in only 6% of their away games. They rank third both in the home and the away league table ant they scored most goals in the league this season after Bayern. Team ranks fourth in the league form table (5-1-2 last eight games) and they are 1-1-2 in the last four road games in all competitions.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the team’s and the league’s leading scorer with 27 goals while Ousmane Dembele and Raphael Guerreiro have six each in their accounts. Dembele is the team’s leading assister with 11 so far while passing segment belongs to Mattias Ginter and Julian Weigl with 1590 and 1575 total passes. Goalies Roman Burki (23 appearances) and Roman Weidenfeller (seven appearances) have collected 74 saves so far with eight clean sheet games combined.
Mario Goetze (Thigh, Illness) and Jacob Larsen (broken foot) are out for the season while Marc Bartra (Broken wrist) should be back in mid May. Andre Schurrle (Achilles tendon) should be available in few weeks while Sokratis Papastathopoulos’s (Leg) status is unknown. Sebastian Rode (Muscle), Julian Weigl (Thigh) are day to day while Nuri Sahin (Ankle) should be back in a few days.
FC BAYERN MUNICH vs. BORUSSIA DORTMUND PREDICTION
This will be the 116th “Der Klassiker” derby in all competitions and Bayern Munich holds the edge with 53 wins while Borussia Dortmund emerged victorious in 29 games. 33 matches ended in a draw and the total goal difference is 209-140 (Bayern).
In DFB Pokal competition, teams met nine times so far and Munich team has the upper hand here too as they’ve recorded five oppose to Dortmund’s three wins. Only one game finished with a draw.
Last year, teams met in the final game when Bayern snatched a win after penalties, 4:3 (0:0 regular time). Two match-ups in the league this season went the host teams way (4:1 in Munich, 1:0 in Dortmund). Although both teams have been very efficient in the season, scoring a lot of goals, the true is that when they play each other, surprisingly, not a lot of goals are score. As a matter of fact, the two teams have scored 3+ goals in only 2 of their last 13 meetings in all competitions. With that being said, I will follow the trend and pick the Under!!!
My Pick: Under 3.5 goals (-130)
