The divisional playoff round is here and while the two teams with the NFL’s top records are in the NFC, the two AFC Divisional Playoff Games are highly compelling. These teams have met in the divisional round earlier this century. The Chargers and Patriots met for the AFC championship in the Patriots’ 2007 season, which ended at 18-1 in the Super Bowl. What will happen in these two games?
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Chiefs -5.5
The Colts have beaten the Chiefs three times in the playoffs over the past 25 years. They have won in Kansas City as a road team against the top-seeded Chiefs before: that was in the 1995 AFC Divisional Playoff Game. The Colts beat the second-seeded Chiefs several years later before losing to New England in the AFC title game under Peyton Manning. The Colts also beat the Chiefs earlier this decade when Andrew Luck led a miraculous comeback in the wild card round against Alex Smith’s Chiefs. All the history is something which will be talked about before kickoff, but this year, the faces are different.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
The Chiefs’ offense will not have Kareem Hunt due to the running back’s off-field behavior, which ended his 2018 season. They haven’t really missed him but he was their best running back and with him and Sammy Watkins out, this unit feels slightly less lethal. They still have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and other downfield pass-catching options, which can spread the field. Most of all, though, they have Patrick Mahomes, who is in the conversation for MVP after throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns this season.
Kansas City’s defense has shown signs of significant leakage in recent weeks, especially at Seattle in a Week 16 shootout loss and that’s where the Colts have a big edge. Their defense is allowing a league-best 14.0 points per game over its last eight. Along with the fact that this team has won 10 of its last 11 provides confidence that it’ll at least cover — if not win outright.
Pick: Colts +5.5
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Odds: Patriots -4.5
The Chargers are now 13-4 after their wild card win over Baltimore and enter this game with a better record than New England. They are a tough team and arguably the most balanced. They finished sixth in points scored and eighth in points allowed.
Tom Brady will face a tough assignment as this is one of the weaker Patriots units they’ve had under Bill Belichick. This Chargers team is very strong on the road as their 7-1 road record was the best in the NFL. Their win in Kansas City against the Chiefs in December sent a message to the rest of the AFC that the Chargers are very capable of winning big games away from home.
However, there is one number which is impossible for people to ignore in this game: seven. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers have met seven times as the quarterbacks for these two teams. All seven times, Brady and the Patriots have beaten Rivers and the Chargers — including multiple times in the playoffs. The Chargers should keep this close but Brady, Belichick and a bye usually leads to a win.
Pick: Patriots -4
