The UEFA Europa League Round of 16 first leg matches are set for this Thursday, March 8th, 2018, and one of the most intriguing encounters will be played at Signal Iduna Park where Dortmund welcomes Salzburg. The bookies set the hosts as -195 favorites to win the first leg, while the price on Dortmund to win the matchup is at -400, but this clash is a quite interesting one for those who like to bet on the totals as Dortmund and Salzburg both prefer attacking football, so let’s see what can we expect from these two sides.
Dortmund vs. Salzburg
3-Way: 1: Dortmund -195; X: +350 Draw; 2: Salzburg +500 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total +2.5: Over -164; Under +129
Total +3: Over +102; Under -126
Both Teams to Score Yes/No: -140/+103
DORTMUND
The Black and Yellows are playing in a solid form recently, as they are undefeated for ten games in a row in all competitions, recording four wins and six draws in the process with a 15:10 goal difference, which is 2.5 goals per contest on average, while seven out of these ten games had less than three goals in the total. Since the winter break, Dortmund recorded two wins and three stalemates on the home soil with an 8:5 goal difference, while two out of these five tilts were finished in the over. Dortmund has beaten Italian side Atalanta 4-3 on aggregate in the previous round of the Europa League, winning 3-2 in the first leg at Signal Iduna Park, and playing a 1-1 stalemate in Bergamo.
After Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (21 goals in 24 apps) left the club this January to join Arsenal, three different players are toping the team’s scoring chart with six goals apiece – Maximilian Philipp, Andriy Yarmolenko, and Shinji Kagawa. The skillful forward Marco Reus has recovered from a long-term injury, and he’s a man to look after, as he’s bagged three goals in the previous four matches. Shinji Kagawa is also the team’s best assist-maker with seven dishes in 26 appearances this season, but he’s doubtful for the clash against Salzburg due to an ankle injury, while Andriy Yarmolenko (foot) is certainly ruled out. The striker Michy Batshuayi has scored five goals in his first three matches after joining the club in the previous transfer window, but he couldn’t find the net in the last four games.
SALZBURG
The Red Bulls from Salzburg are having a tremendous season so far, as they are unbeaten for more than six months and 30 straight matches in all competitions, recording 19 victories and 11 draws in the process with a 60:18 goal difference, which is 2.6 goals per contest on average, while a half of these 30 tilts had at least three goals in the total. Since the winter break, the Red Bulls recorded seven wins and one stalemate with a 23:6 goal difference, while six out of these eight matches had at least three goals in the total. In the last five matches on the road, Salzburg earned two wins and three draws, including two nil-nil stalemates against Marseille in the Europa League, and AC Wolfsberger in the Austrian Bundesliga. The Red Bulls have beaten Real Sociedad 4-3 on aggregate in the previous round of the Europa League after winning 2-1 in the second leg at home.
The Israeli forward Munas Dabbur is the team’s leading scorer with 22 goals in 38 matches this season, while he’s netted four times in his last five appearances. The strikers Fredrik Gulbrandsen (13 goals in 38 apps) and Hee-Chan Hwang (11 goals in 26 games) both were quite efficient thus far, while the team’s best assist-maker is the left-back Andreas Ulmer with 12 dishes 36 appearances this season. The manager Marco Rose doesn’t have any injury worries among the squad, so he can pick up his best eleven for the first leg at Signal Iduna Park.
Betting on the Totals – Trends
- Seven out of the last ten Dortmund’s matches had less than three goals in the total
- Three out of the last five Dortmund home games had less than three goals in the total
- Five out of eight Dortmund’s European matches were ended in the over 2.5 goals
- Six out of the last eight Salzburg’s games had at least three goals in the total
- Three out of eight Salzburg’s Europa League matches had more than two goals in the total
- Two out of the previous five Salzburg’s games on the road were finished in a nil-nil draw
Dortmund vs. Salzburg – Match Prediction
The hosts are the better team on a paper, but the bookies favor the goals on both sides, as the market on this is set at -140. However, the first leg is always a tricky one, and if the teams fail to break the deadlock in the first 45 minutes, this clash could be easily finished in the under. On the other hand, the attacking potential is huge on both sides, while after 30 consecutive matches without defeat, maybe it is time for Salzburg to lose one.
MY PICK: Over 3 Goals (+102)
