The No. 20-ranked Duke Blue Devils (20-6) and their top-ranked offense travel to Louisville to play the No. 18-ranked Cardinals (20-6) and their 175th-ranked defense. The game begins at 12:00 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 20 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Cardinals come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, topping Syracuse 72-58 on Wednesday. Chinanu Onuaku was a key piece, recording 13 points and 15 rebounds to notch his ninth double-double of the season. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, are coming off a 74-73 win against North Carolina on Wednesday. Brandon Ingram had a good performance, registering 20 points and 10 rebounds to claim his seventh double-double of the season.
This matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair as Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency (116.2), while Duke is first (122.2). Also, the Blue Devils’s first-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 122.2) will face off against the fourth-ranked defense of the Cardinals (defensive efficiency of 91.4).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Blue Devils won the first game 72-65. Ingram put up a double-double in the victory with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
The Cardinals are hoping to build on their records of 20-6 Straight Up (SU) and 11-11 Against The Spread (ATS). Louisville has consistently been near the top of the nation in terms of field goal percentage, currently ranking 26th in the nation with a FG% of .478. Louisville has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 39.8 rebounds per game. Louisville has been struggling of late. The Cardinals have given up an average of 73.6 points to opponents in their last 10 games, well over their defense’s season average of 60.6 PPG. An area where the Cardinals are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.1 blocks per game, 32nd in Division I.
As for their opponent, the Blue Devils have records of 13-12 ATS and 20-6 SU. The Blue Devils have been struggling of late. In their most recent 10 games, their scoring has dropped to 70.9 PPG, compared to 77.7 for the duration of the season. The Blue Devils are getting to the foul line at a high rate. Their 463 free throws made ranks 38th in Division I. The Blue Devils rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the 44th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.35. The Blue Devils average 71.0 points allowed per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 63.6 points per game during that span. Duke’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 5.0 shots from the three-point line per game. When it comes to defending the rim, the Blue Devils are one of the best in the nation with an average of 4.7 blocks per game.
In their previous meeting this season, Duke beat Louisville, bringing its SU record to 3-1. Additionally, with a 3-1 record, Duke has the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke
Notes
“Louisville is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games “.
“Louisville is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville’s last 6 games “.
“Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home”.
“Louisville is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home”.
Louisville and Duke both hold winning records of 9-4 against the Atlantic Coast Conference this season.
The Duke Blue Devils average 83.1 points per game, ranking 13th in the nation. The Louisville Cardinals rank seventh in points allowed with 60.6.
Duke averages 78.1 points per away game (ranked 21st). However, Louisville has allowed an average of just 55.3 points per home game, ranked third this season.
Ranked 17th, the Louisville Cardinals have an offensive rating of 116.2. The Duke Blue Devils rank 175th with a defensive rating of just 103.5.
Duke beats Louisville in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Blue Devils average 68.0 possessions and 1.222 points per possession, while the Cardinals average 66.8 possessions with 1.162 points per possession.
Duke has an average effective field goal percentage of 54.9% (ranked 24th in the nation). Louisville is a losing 1-2 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Louisville Cardinals average 17.0 three point attempts per game, and the Duke Blue Devils attempt 22.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Louisville is 5-2 and Duke is 15-5.
Louisville ranks 32nd in blocks per game with 5.1 and Duke ranks 50th with 4.7 blocks per game.
Louisville is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 11th. Duke ranks just 192nd in defensive rebounds.
The Duke Blue Devils make an average of 5.9 steals per game. When the Louisville Cardinals give up 5 or more steals, they are a stellar 12-3.
