The No. 20-ranked Duke Blue Devils (19-6) head to North Carolina to take on the No. 5-ranked Tar Heels (21-4) in what should be a high-scoring game. The game gets underway at 9:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Feb. 17 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Tar Heels dismantled Pittsburgh 85-64 on Sunday. Brice Johnson led all scorers on the team with 19 points on 9-for-12 shooting. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, are coming off a 63-62 win over Virginia on Saturday. Grayson Allen played well for Duke, registering 15 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists.
It might turn into a shootout as a pair of the nation’s top offenses match up. North Carolina ranks 11th in the country with 117.0 points per 100 possessions, while Duke is first in that metric (122.7).
While the Tar Heels have a good Straight Up (SU) record (21-4), they’ve been poor Against The Spread (ATS) with a 9-14-2 record. The Tar Heels have no trouble scoring as they rank eighth in the nation in offense with 83.8 points per game. North Carolina has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a stellar .734. North Carolina has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 40.4 rebounds per game. North Carolina is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.69.
As for their opponent, the Blue Devils have 19-6 SU and 12-12 ATS records. The Blue Devils rank 11th in the country in scoring, averaging 83.4 points per game. Duke is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, hitting 9.0 shots from three-point range per game. The Blue Devils are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 38th in Division I at 1.36.
North Carolina and Duke meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Duke won the last game in the matchup, bumping its SU record over their most recent meetings to 7-3. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Duke held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. North Carolina never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke
Notes
North Carolina is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 83.8 points per game (ranked eighth). Duke, on the other hand, allows 70.9 points per game (ranked 129th).
Duke has allowed an average of 72.4 points per away game this season. North Carolina averages 86.7 points per home game, ranking 10th in scoring.
In its last game, North Carolina won by a margin of 21 points. Duke is 10-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. North Carolina has a 9-0 record in blowouts.
Ranked 11th, the North Carolina Tar Heels have an offensive rating of 117.0. The Duke Blue Devils rank 173rd with a defensive rating of just 103.4.
North Carolina averages 71.7 possessions per game, scoring 1.170 points on each possession. While Duke averages fewer possessions per game with 68.0, they score more points per possession with 1.227.
Duke has the 22nd-ranked average effective field goal percentage in the nation at 55.2%. North Carolina is an even 1-1 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 17.0 three point attempts per game, and the Duke Blue Devils attempt 23.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, North Carolina is a perfect 7-0, while Duke also has a winning record (15-5).
The third-ranked team in the category, North Carolina has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.69 this season. Duke ranks 38th with an A/TO of 1.36.
North Carolina, the 29th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 40.4 rebounds per game. Duke does worse, ranked 112th with 37.6.
North Carolina ranks 67th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Duke ranks 71st.
On average, North Carolina forces a turnover rate of 19.6%. When Duke turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 4-2 record.
