The No. 7 Duke Blue Devils (15-2, 3-2 ACC) head to Miami to take on the No. 18 Hurricanes (13-3, 2-2 ACC) in a matchup that pits sensational offense against tremendous defense. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, January 15, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Duke is a 3-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 154.5 points.
Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes ATS Prediction
The Blue Devils will be looking for a similar outcome after blowing out the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in their last contest, 89-71. The Blue Devils knocked down 27 of their 34 free throws (79.4 percent) and held the Demon Deacons to an effective field goal percentage of 0.427 (below their season average of 0.532). Duke was led by Marvin Bagley III, who was the top scorer from either team with 30 points on 11-for-21 shooting.
In the Hurricanes’ last game, they fell to the No. 19 Clemson Tigers, 72-63. Converting at the free throw line was one of Clemson’s biggest strengths. They were 16-17 (94.1 percent), while the Hurricanes were just 9-18 (50.0 percent). Miami’s Lonnie Walker recorded 16 points and seven rebounds in the game.
Miami may have trouble getting to the charity stripe in this matchup. The Hurricanes rank 329th in the NCAA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.183, while Duke ranks 20th in FTA rate allowed (0.176). Additionally, the top-ranked offense of the Blue Devils (offensive efficiency of 126.6) will face off against the fifth-ranked defense of the Hurricanes (defensive efficiency of 88.8).
Duke holds records of 15-2 straight up (SU) and 10-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Blue Devils’ 15 games that accepted bets, 12 have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 13-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS. Contrary to Duke, games featuring the Hurricanes tend to go under the total (63.6 percent).
Gary Trent Jr. has averaged 15.6 points and 2.2 steals over the last five games for Duke.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last contest, the Hurricanes won 55-50. The Hurricanes knocked down 10 of their 14 free throws (71.4 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (13.5 vs. 15.7).
Duke Blue Devils vs. Miami Hurricanes ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Duke is 5-3 ATS with 7 overs and 1 under.
At home, Miami is 1-0 ATS with 1 over and 0 unders.
Duke ranks second in assists per game (19.9) while Miami ranks 167th (13.0).
The Blue Devils rank second in rebounds per game (44.1) while the Hurricanes rank 114th (36.6).
Duke ranks 13th in steals allowed per game (4.6) while Miami ranks 82nd (6.0).
The Blue Devils rank 18th in blocks per game (5.5) while the Hurricanes rank 52nd in blocks allowed per game (2.9).
Miami averages 19.9 three pointers per game, which ranks 195th in the NCAA. Duke ranks 200th in three pointers allowed per game (24.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Duke is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Blue Devils’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 22.6, up from 19.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hurricanes have scored an average of 69.6 points per game (3.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 68.8 points per game (8.1 above their season average).
