The No.1-seeded Duke Blue Devils face off against the No.7-seeded Michigan State Spartans in the Final Four of the NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Action begins at 6:09 pm ET on Saturday, Apr. 4 and can be seen on TBS.
The Blue Devils played well in their last game, topping Gonzaga 66-52 in the Elite Eight. Matt Jones played a pivotal role with 16 points, three steals, and three rebounds. The Spartans, meanwhile, are coming off a 76-70 win against Louisville in the Elite Eight. Travis Trice led the team in scoring by accounting for 17 points on 5-for-15 shooting.
Over the last five games, Justise Winslow has taken his game to another level for the Blue Devils, averaging 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 3.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out, as two of the nation’s top rebounding teams face off. Duke is among the nation’s best on the offensive glass, ranking 19th in OR% at 37.4%. Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks 20th in the nation at corralling defensive boards with a DR% of 73.9%. Moreover, foul-shooting opportunities could prove to be quite rare for the Spartans. They are 290th in the nation in FTA rate (32.4), while the Blue Devils are among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 24.3, ranking fifth in the country).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Blue Devils winning the first matchup 66-52. Jones had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 16 points, three rebounds, one assist, three steals, and four three-pointers.
Duke is a five-point favorite against Michigan State and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at 140 points. The Blue Devils come into this game 33-4 Straight Up (SU) and 22-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Blue Devils are one of the best in Division I in terms of three-point field goals, making 7.7 shots per game from beyond the arc. Duke is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.40.
Over on the other bench, the Spartans have 27-11 SU and 22-16 ATS records. The Spartans convert their shots at a high percentage, ranking 36th in the country at .470. The Spartans are an unselfish team with an average of 17.0 assists per game, ranking fifth in Division I.
With the Blue Devils’ last win against Michigan State, their SU record is now 6-1 over Michigan State in their most recent games. The teams are even ATS, with a 3-3-1 record. Neither team held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers in a single game during this span.
Predictions: SU Winner – DUKE, ATS Winner – MSU, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke’s last 5 games.
Duke is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Michigan State.
Ranked second, the Duke Blue Devils have an offensive rating of 120.9. The Michigan State Spartans, on the other hand, rank 107th with a defensive rating of 176.3.
On average, Duke has 67.1 possessions per game and scores 1.209 points on each possession. Michigan State has both fewer possessions (64.9) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.107).
The Duke Blue Devils have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking fourth in the country with an eFG% of 57.2%. When their opponents record a similar or higher eFG%, the Michigan State Spartans have a losing 1-3 record.
Ranked Fifth in the country, the Michigan State Spartans average 17.0 assists per game. The Duke Blue Devils make 15.7 assists (ranked 18th).
Michigan State, the 57th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.5 per game. Duke does worse, ranked 136th with 3.8.
Michigan State is one of the top defensive rebounding teams, ranking 22nd. Duke ranks 73rd in offensive rebounding.
Michigan State makes an average of 5.4 steals per game. Duke has an outstanding 17-2 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
