The No.1-seeded Duke Blue Devils face off against the No.7-seeded Michigan State Spartans in the Final Four of the NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Action begins at 6:09 pm ET on Saturday, Apr. 4 and can be seen on TBS.
The Blue Devils played well in their last game, topping Gonzaga 66-52 in the Elite Eight. Tyus Jones was the game’s leading scorer with 24 points on 5-for-10 shooting. The Spartans, meanwhile, are coming off a 76-70 win against Louisville in the Elite Eight. Marvin Clark Jr. played well for Michigan State, registering 14 points, five rebounds, and five assists.
Over the last five games, Justise Winslow has taken his game to another level for the Blue Devils, averaging 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 3.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 1.4 three-pointers.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out, as two of the nation’s top rebounding teams face off. Duke is among the nation’s best on the offensive glass, ranking 19th in OR% at 37.4%. Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks 20th in the nation at corralling defensive boards with a DR% of 73.9%. Moreover, foul-shooting opportunities could prove to be quite rare for the Spartans. They are 290th in the nation in FTA rate (32.4), while the Blue Devils are among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a rate of just 24.3, ranking fifth in the country).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Blue Devils winning the first matchup 81-71. Jones had a stellar game with 17 points, four assists, two steals, and two three-pointers.
Duke is a five-point favorite against Michigan State and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at 140 points. The Blue Devils come into this game 33-4 Straight Up (SU) and 22-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Blue Devils are one of the best in Division I in terms of three-point field goals, making 7.7 shots per game from beyond the arc. Duke is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.40.
In the other locker room, the Spartans have 27-11 SU and 22-16 ATS records. The Spartans convert their shots at a high percentage, ranking 36th in the country at .470. The Spartans are an unselfish team with an average of 17.0 assists per game, ranking fifth in Division I.
The Blue Devils’ win over Michigan State in their last game bumped their SU record to 6-1 over Michigan State in their most recent meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 3-3-1 record. During their latest five matchups, neither team ever held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers.
Predictions: SU Winner – DUKE, ATS Winner – MSU, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke’s last 5 games.
Duke is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Michigan State.
In its last game, Michigan State won by a margin of two points. Duke is 2-0 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Michigan State has a 2-3 record in close games.
Ranked 24th, the Duke Blue Devils have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 152.9 points per 100 possessions. The Michigan State Spartans rank 37th in offense, scoring 110.7 points in the same number of possessions.
Duke has the third-ranked average field goal percentage at 50.4%. Michigan State has not won a game this season when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage (0-4).
On average, the Duke Blue Devils attempt 19.7 three point field goals per game and the Michigan State Spartans attempt 19.6. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Duke has an exceptional 13-2 record, while Michigan State is 9-6.
Michigan State ranks among the best in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.45 (ranked 10th). Duke is ranked in the top 25 at 13th with an A/TO of 1.40 this season.
Duke ranks 40th in rebounds per game with 37.4 and Michigan State ranks 33rd with 37.8 rebounds per game.
Michigan State ranks 101st in offensive rebounds, while Duke ranks at 52nd in defensive rebounds.
