The Duke Blue Devils (6-4) are looking to break a three-game losing streak as they play the Virginia Cavaliers (3-7). The ACC’s third-leading passer, Matt Johns (2,295 yards, 17 TDs), will be the focal point of this game. If it can pull out a win this week, Duke could begin to get back on track. While they have had some success this season, the Blue Devils have struggled lately, losing three straight. The game will air Saturday, Nov 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESP3.
In last week’s matchup, Virginia was defeated by Louisville 38-31. Canaan Severin had a great game in the loss, totaling eight receptions for 116 yards and three TDs. Matt Johns also had a big day, contributing 260 yards and four TDs through the air. Duke also came up short, getting beat by Pittsburgh 31-13. Anthony Nash had a huge game for the Blue Devils, grabbing five receptions for 101 yards. Parker Boehme added 248 yards through the air.
Virginia is a small two-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable.
Even with a subpar Straight Up (SU) record of 3-7, the Cavaliers played better than expected, going 6-4 Against The Spread (ATS) so far this year. In their five most recent matchups, the Cavaliers went 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. Virginia has made opposing defenses pay lately, averaging 163.6 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks, higher than its season average of 133.2. During their last five games, the Cavaliers have also improved their pass coverage, giving up an average of 214.4 passing yards. The Blue Devils will need to stop Virginia’s defense from stripping the ball. It ranks 17th in the nation in fumbles recovered with 0.9 per game. Keeping the ball 28:05 minutes per game, Duke ranks 111th in average time of possession. They probably won’t be controlling the clock against the Cavaliers.
Over on the other sideline, the Blue Devils have a record of 5-5 ATS and 6-4 SU. The Blue Devils went 2-3 for both SU and ATS over the last five games. The defensive front seven better be ready for Duke’s bruising rushing attack which has averaged 203.2 yards on the ground over its past five games. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Cavaliers to keep up with Duke’s defense in a few areas. Stopping the run doesn’t have to be Duke’s first priority. Virginia ranks 110th in the nation with an average of 133.2 rushing yards per game. The Blue Devils generally save their best for last, averaging 10.6 points in the fourth quarter. Yellow flags will likely be a common sight during any game with Virginia. The Cavaliers are one of the most penalized teams in the country with 7.4 calls per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke
Notes
Virginia is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games.
Virginia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia’s last 5 games at home.
Virginia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Duke.
Virginia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Duke.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Virginia’s last 10 games when playing Duke.
Virginia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Duke.
Virginia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Duke.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia’s last 6 games when playing at home against Duke.
Duke is 6-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Virginia is 1-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Duke is only 2-3) SU in games where it comes out ahead in the turnover battle, yet 2-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Since the start of last year, Virginia is only 5-9 SU against ACC opponents, while Duke is 8-6 SU against in-conference foes.
