The Atlantic 10’s top team will be at home when the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (24-6) welcome the Duquesne Dukes (15-15) to Michael J. Hagan ’85 Arena. Action starts at 4:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5.
The Hawks were beaten by St. Bonaventure 98-90 on Wednesday. Shavar Newkirk finished with 19 points to lead the team. The Dukes are coming off a 78-69 loss to Fordham on Wednesday. Eric James stood out for Duquesne, accumulating 14 points, three steals, and one rebound.
Scoring opportunities from the charity stripe may be sporadic for the Dukes in this one. They’re 274th in the nation in FTA rate (32.9), while Saint Joseph’s is among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (yielding a rate of 25.0, ranking sixth overall).
The Hawks come into this game 24-6 Straight Up (SU) and 19-10 Against The Spread (ATS). Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Saint Joseph’s, which ranks 20th at 1.47. Saint Joseph’s’s defense has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game rose to 80.3 during that span, compared to its 68.9 season average. Saint Joseph’s’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation. The Hawks allow a .302 opponent three-point field goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the nation. An area where the Hawks are particularly strong is defensive rebounding where they average 28.5 per game, 19th in Division I.
Over on the other bench, Duquesne has a SU record of 15-15 and an ATS record of 13-14. Duquesne is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, knocking down 9.0 shots from three-point range per game. The last 10 games have really brought out the best of the Dukes on the defensive end. They’ve allowed 71.3 points per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 77.5. The Dukes have established a reputation of cleaning up the defensive glass with 28.9 defensive rebounds per game, making them one of the top teams in the nation.
Saint Joseph’s and Duquesne meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Duquesne won the last game in the matchup, but the win was not enough to overtake Saint Joseph’s in their recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 4-6 SU over the most recent meetings. With a 5-4-1 record, the Hawks also have the advantage ATS. Saint Joseph’s held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five games, while Duquesne wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – StJoes, ATS Winner – StJoes
Notes
Saint Joseph’s averages 77.1 points per game (ranked 74th). Duquesne, on the other hand, allows 77.5 points per game (ranked 227th).
Duquesne scores 73.2 points per away game (ranked 85th). Saint Joseph’s ranks a poor 133rd in points allowed at home, allowing 68.6 points.
The Saint Joseph’s Hawks have a defensive rating of 98.4 (ranked 50th), while the Duquesne Dukes have an offensive rating of 107.6 (ranked 131st).
The Saint Joseph’s Hawks average a field goal percentage of 45.1% this season. The Duquesne Dukes have an abysmal record of 1-6 when opponents have a FG% of 45.1% or greater.
The Saint Joseph’s Hawks rank higher based on their field goal percentage (126th) than their effective field goal percentage (144th). The Duquesne Dukes rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (46th) than their field goal percentage (91st).
Saint Joseph’s ranks 66th in assists, recording 15.1 per game. Duquesne ranks 48th with 15.7 assists per game.
Saint Joseph’s ranks 59th in rebounds per game with 38.8 and Duquesne ranks 46th with 39.3 rebounds per game.
Duquesne ranks 206th in offensive rebounds, while Saint Joseph’s ranks at 19th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Duquesne forces a turnover rate of 16.4%. When Saint Joseph’s turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 8-3 record.
