As soon as the NBA Draft 2017 ended, Vegas sportsbook have started offering us the opportunity to wager on the next NBA Rookie of the Year. It’s an intriguing long term betting proposition as these races often turn out upside down and can be unpredictable to the very end.
In fact, we haven’t even learned who was the top rook in the season that has ended a couple of weeks ago. Bucks’ guard Malcolm Brogdon is expected to take the award home, but was underdog to win as the season ended, so it’s clear that there’s money to be had, even during the season. But if you are patient and would like to hunt to value right now, I got you covered.
Taking the long term bets isn’t just about the patience and doesn’t have to be straightforward. Public usually takes small wagers on their favorite new guys and waits a year to see if they had won. That’s not what I’m going to suggest here, so if you hoped for such article feel free to move on.
What I’m going to look at is if there’s an extra value on the guys that have most chance to win in, but also if some of the underdogs are underrated. Besides the talent, situation where players land plays a major role in their chances to win the NBA Rookie the Year award, and with team rosters far from set, it’s possible that the future moves will drop or raise someone’s chances. This can happen throughout the season, and there’ll be more factors that can pull the odds in either way, increasing the likelihood of a potential hedge, or middled wager, if you choose wisely from the very start.
Favorites to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award
Let’s take a first look at the favorites to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award in 2018. It’s more crowded than usual as the usual suspects will have the previous first pick’s competition.
Philly’s Ben Simmons hasn’t played a single minute during the last season, making him eligible for the award. A teammate of his, newly added first pick Markelle Fultz will be one of his major rivals for the award, but they both look in Lakers’ Lonzo Ball’s back. Another two point guards follow, Mavericks’ Dennis Smith and Kings’ DeAaron Fox.
The #1 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft was Fultz to the Sixers, but he opened +500 to win the NBA Rookie of the Year. The #2 pick, Lonzo Ball, has better chance at +200. Simmons can be had anywhere from +150 to +300, as his game took a year long pause and the books aren’t too sure what to expect. Fox and Smith are between +700 and +900, depending on the book, but Smith has been a popular choice since the line opening and the juice is dropping by the day.
This is pretty much what is expected. The Sixers have a young bunch and will probably increase their dismal number of wins, but shouldn’t be expected to make a strong run at the playoffs this season, and even if they do, they’ll probably block each other out the same way as all the Warriors stars came up short for the MVP award this year. On top of that, Fultz will probably defer to Embiid and Simmons and Saric still hasn’t found a bad shot, so he’s a prime candidate to fade.
His season props over/unders have opened at 12.5 points and 2.5 assists, and over have been jumped on. Even if you believe that he could top those numbers, it might not be enough to take the award. On bad years, like the one that has ended, those kind of numbers can get you in contention (Brogdon averaged 9.0-4.3-3.5 this season), but this isn’t a regular season, as other players will be trusted in much larger roles. Simmons is a more intriguing player to win it, but should not be strongly considered at these odds.
The other three players with the lowest payout will all be given a chance to thrive, but the public has been wrong to recognize which player will also be given the key of the franchise. It is not Dennis Smith Jr.
As much as the early signals are strong in showing that Cuban and the Mavericks have faith in him, it’s still going to be Dirk’s team. And after Dirk, there are other veterans in his and other positions that he’ll need to look up to. The Mavs also claimed that they loved Yogi Ferrell, so even as they won’t sign more players to the position, Smith as a starter is a 50-50 at best. Finally, even if he makes it, Carlisle isn’t known as a very tolerant coach towards rookies, so it’s going to be a rough start for him.
Fox and Ball on the other hand, are not only believed to be the future of the franchise, but also the present. Fox is immediately the most talented player on the Kings roster, and while Ball is also going to lead the Lakers, he’s been marked due to some pompous statements and NBA players, young or old, will try to make him look bad. If he does turn Lakers around (not out of question, as there’s a possibility that this team will add a free agent star or trade for one), he’ll probably take the NBA Rookie of the Year award.
However, at +900, I’m thinking Fox. His true obstacle will be that his team won’t get to the playoffs, but then neither of the other teams are locks to make it either.
Don’t sleep on the sleepers
Interestingly enough, the third pick from this year’s draft, Jayson Tatum, is a long shot to win at +1800, behind the #4 pick Josh Jackson (+1200) and others. The books don’t expect him to take the starter’s role with the Celtics, but he should have a significant role even if he comes in off the bench. The Celtics have had issues with the second unit and he might increase his odds with a solid contribution, making him a good candidate for the middling bets.
Isaac (+3000), Josh and Justin Jackson (+3300) and both Zach (+4000) and John Collins (+5000) will probably contribute more than their odds suggest, but with defense and fundamentals, losing leverage to the offensive minded players.
One of the better instant offense players is Charlotte’s new scorer Malik Monk, but he won’t have enough shots to make it happen, and at just +900, he’s more of a fade candidate. I don’t like Markkanen’s (+3300) chance either with the Bulls, but the price might drop as the Bulls clean up the roster – keep an eye on Mirotic’s status.
I do like another underdog shooter. Luke Kennard has flew under the radar but is terrific, natural scorer that comes to a struggling Pistons offense. At +3300, Kennard is a great value to be taken from the get-go. He could even become a starter for the Pistons and drop 15 points a night, so expect his price to be at the +500 – +1000 range after the All Star break. Ball, Simmons and others will probably be favored even then, but that doesn’t mean Kennard will be without any chance and you could always hedge your bet and earn sure bucks.
It’s a long wait to cash in, but it doesn’t get much better than this when the season-long props are concerned. The thrill of the unexpected, the development and the dynamics in months to follow will sure lure you to give it a shot, so please be smart about your investment and don’t let the emotions or the big headlines drive your decision. Good luck!
