Making an early morning line for the Pegasus World Cup is not an easy chore but that is why the big bucks are thrown around. So, here goes my look on an early morning line for the $12 million new Super Bowl of racing. The 9-furlong Gulfstream Park event will be staged on January 28 and, on paper, it sets up as a 2-horse race.
Unless a meteor hits earth or creatures from outer space invade Florida, an early morning line for the Pegasus World Cup starts with California Chrome and Arrogate.
Third choice is up for grabs. The sort of obvious third choice would be Keen Ice since he was the closest to the top pair in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Keen Ice proved his mettle winning the Travers beating Triple Crown champ American Pharoah in 2015. He did run a distant third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic but his connections were not dissatisfied with his second at Gulfstream on December 17. The concern about Keen Ice is that he blanked in 2016. He is in the good hands of Todd Pletcher and there will be enough speed here to help promote the kick. Things will still need to break just right.
The other runner that could take a bit of action is Noble Bird. He was bothered at the start in his last race and never got untracked. The speedy pro did win the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He has plenty of back class to draw from and he is in the clever stable of Mark Casse. This runner is by the Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone and out a dam that is a daughter of 2-time Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Tiznow. The way he has been acting in the mornings suggests he is really feeling his oats. On New Year’s Eve he worked a best of the day :47 2/5 drill. He followed that up on January 8 with another best of the day drill. He went 1:00 3/5. On January 15, Noble Bird was the best worker of 35 when he was clocked in :48 1/5.
Shaman Ghost is another that will not be totally dismissed in the early morning line. He raced in Canada at one point in his career but he graduated at Gulfstream Park and he showed he belongs with some of the best around when he won the Grade 2 Brooklyn. Although he may not have adored the rail in the Grade 1 Woodward last September, he settled early and came running. In the end he won by a head with a career best 106 Beyer.
The rest of the runners will all be legit prices. The other Pletcher runner Neolithic has only won twice but he has speed and figures to use it. It’s probably his best chance and it would help his stablemate Keen Ice.
War Story is doing well now after his win in the Queens County at Aqueduct but in most of the quality races he was in, the runner did not excel.
Breaking Lucky is a runner that has been around the wire a lot of times but it’s possible t he light has finally gone on. He was recently second in the Grade 1 Clark when 46-1.
Eragon is the mystery horse. Eight of his 10 wins have come on turf but he has also performed on dirt. Question marks surround this runner because he will be making his first start in the United States. As far as experience, he’s right there with them all.
There are three horses that just might go triple digits when it is all said and done and that is what has happened in this early morning line for the Pegasus.
War Envoy has not won since June of 2015. It came by neck against 27 horses.
Ralis has been on the turf for six straight races but he has never won on that surface. He seems like a substitute teacher in this spot that will be taken advantage of by the ‘wise guys’ in the class.
The religious in the crowd could have a vehicle with Prayer for Relief but there may not be enough psalms to go around. It’s been eons since he has graced the winner’s circle and in his last 2 races, he was beaten by nearly 50 lengths combined.
The disadvantage of making an early morning line is not knowing the post position. With the Pegasus World Cup at a mile and an eighth, there is a quick run to the first turn and inside posts are preferred. If a horse with speed or middling speed draws an outside post, that is a major problem.
With that said, here is the early morning line. Arrogate, 1-1, California Chrome, 6-5, Noble Bird, 12-1, Keen Ice, 15-1, Shaman Ghost, 15-1, Neolithic, 30-1, War Story, 30-1, Breaking Lucky, 30-1, Eragon, 50-1, War Envoy, 100-1, Ralis, 100-1, Prayer for Relief, 100-1.
