The East Carolina Pirates (10-16) travel to Moody Coliseum to face off against the No. 21 SMU Mustangs (21-4), the best team in the American Athletic Conference. The game starts at 2:00 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 21 and will air on ESW and ES3.
The Mustangs are hoping for a better outcome after their 68-62 loss to Connecticut on Thursday. Ben Moore put in a solid effort despite the loss for SMU, recording 13 points and 12 rebounds to earn his fourth double-double of the season. The Pirates are coming off a 69-52 loss against South Florida on Tuesday. Caleb White had a team-high 13 points.
Nic Moore has been playing at a high level over the last five games for the Mustangs. During that stretch, he has averaged 19.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 3.6 three-pointers.
When evaluating eFG%, the Mustangs could have a healthy advantage on offense. They’re ranked 14th in the nation in that category at 55.7%, while the porous defense of East Carolina is ranked 279th in eFG% defense, allowing opponents to connect at a rate of 51.5% this year.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Mustangs won the first game 79-55. Moore had a stellar game with 17 points, six rebounds, two assists, four steals, and one block.
The Mustangs come into this game 21-4 Straight Up (SU) and 9-12 Against The Spread (ATS). The Mustangs come into the game with the 49th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 78.7 points per game. The Mustangs are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting an impressive .427 from beyond the arc. Teams have a tough time keeping SMU off of the offensive glass. They rank 33rd in Division I in offensive rebounds. The Mustangs, sporting the 17th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.49), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. As for the SMU defense, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Mustangs. The 64.4 points that SMU’s defense allows per game makes them the 21st-ranked defense in the country. Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Mustangs, ranking 47th in the country in blocks per game with 4.8.
Over on the other bench, the Pirates have 10-16 SU and 10-9-2 ATS records. The East Carolina defense has allowed an average of 66.9 points per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 72.9.
In their previous meeting this season, SMU beat East Carolina, moving its SU record against East Carolina to 6-4 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. On the other hand, East Carolina holds the advantage ATS with a record of 5-4-1. SMU held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, East Carolina never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU
Notes
SMU averages 78.7 points per game (ranked 49th). East Carolina, on the other hand, allows 72.9 points per game (ranked 167th).
SMU scores 81.1 points per home game (ranked 58th). East Carolina ranks a poor 163rd in points allowed on the road, allowing 75.5 points.
Ranked fourth, the SMU Mustangs have an offensive rating of 120.6. The East Carolina Pirates, on the other hand, rank 253rd with a defensive rating of 106.6.
The East Carolina Pirates average 68.3 possessions per game and 1.024 points per possession. The SMU Mustangs earn fewer possessions with 65.3, but they score more points with 1.206.
SMU is ranked 13th in the nation with an average effective field goal percentage of 55.7%. East Carolina has not won a game this season when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage (0-7).
On average, SMU attempts 15.0 three pointers and East Carolina attempts 20.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the SMU Mustangs have a tremendous 5-1 record while the East Carolina Pirates have a poor 3-10 record.
The 17th-ranked team in the category, SMU has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.49 this season. East Carolina ranks outside the top 100 at 118th with an A/TO of 1.15.
SMU, the 51st-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 39.3 rebounds per game. East Carolina does worse, ranked 260th with 34.7.
The East Carolina Pirates make an average of 5.8 steals per game. When the SMU Mustangs give up 5 or more steals, they are a formidable 19-3.
