The East Carolina Pirates (+14) are set to take on their conference nemesis Tulane Green Wave (-14) at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to get going at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESNN.
East Carolina Pirates vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview
East Carolina is a live dog here and is currently getting 14 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put up $600 to win $100 back on the Green Wave (-600). The Pirates are getting +425 moneyline odds. There will likely be some good live betting opportunities for this game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.
This game’s total hasn’t changed after it was initially set at 55.5. Having said that, the opening line was -15 so early action has moved toward the Pirates.
The Pirates have lost 3.0 units so far and are 2-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 4-4. The Green Wave have gained 1.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-7.
The Pirates are 2-6 straight up (SU), including 0-5 SU against AAC opponents. The Green Wave are 4-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.
Tulane enters this matchup on a four-game losing streak while East Carolina has won its last two in a row. The Pirates hope to get back in stride after a 59-41 defeat to Memphis last week. Holton Ahlers completed just 34-of-62 passes for 449 yards and three touchdowns. Ahlers (57 rushing yards on 17 attempts) also led the ground attack. Trevon Brown (10 receptions, 193 yards, two TDs) and Deondre Farrier (six catches, 76 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Tulane enters this one having just earned a 41-15 win over South Florida. Justin McMillan completed four-of-11 passes for 61 yards. Corey Dauphine (121 yards on 17 rush attempts, two TDs) and Darius Bradwell (135 yards on 15 carries, one TD) mounted the running game as Terren Encalade (two receptions, 15 yards) and Darnell Mooney (one catch, 39 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
East Carolina has run the ball on 41.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 38.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Tulane has a run percentage of 67.2 percent, and has rushed the ball 70.0 percent of the time when facing AAC opponents. The Pirates have produced 117 rush yards per game (including 94 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Green Wave are logging 222 rushing yards per game (259 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Green Wave should have an edge when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game, since their running backs has generated 4.8 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Pirates have recorded 3.3 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Pirates offensive scheme has averaged 315 yards through the air overall (321 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Green Wave have produced 158 pass yards per outing (123.2 in the AAC) and have eight total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, East Carolina seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 163 rush yards and 234 pass yards per game. The Tulane defense has allowed 269.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Green Wave are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates have given up a 7.39 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ahlers has put up 593 passing yards this year. He’s completed 52 percent of his 90 attempts with four scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 6.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.14 over the last two outings.
We expect Ahlers to spread the ball around early and often in this one. Trevon Brown (0 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Deondre Farrier (263 yards, two TDs) and Holton Ahlers (0 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.
In the home locker room, Justin McMillan has completed 18-of-40 passes for 257 yards, three TDs and zero INTs. McMillan’s ANY/A stands at 6.09 for the season and 4.74 over his last two outings.
We’re looking for Green Wave to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Justin McMillan (zero receiving yards) has stepped up lately, but Corey Dauphine (535 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Darius Bradwell (676 rush yards, seven rush TDs) have been key factors in the Tulane offense.
These two teams faced off last year with the final result being a 31-24 victory for Tulane.
Free NCAA Betting Tip: East Carolina Pirates at Tulane Green Wave
SU Winner – East Carolina, ATS Winner – East Carolina, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The East Carolina defense has 26 sacks on the year while Tulane has 25.
Tulane has lost nine fumbles in 2018 while the East Carolina offense has lost seven.
The Pirates offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Green Wave have accounted for five such plays.
The East Carolina defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tulane has given up five such plays.
The East Carolina offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Tulane has created 27 such runs.
The Pirates defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Green Wave have given up eight such runs.
The Over/Under for Tulane’s previous matchup going into it was 60.5. The under cashed in the team’s 41-15 win over South Florida.
In its last three matches, Tulane is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three matchups, East Carolina is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
East Carolina has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a two-point win over Old Dominion on September 29th accounting for the only victory over that span.
The O/U for East Carolina’s previous game was 67. The over cashed in the team’s 59-41 loss to Memphis.
East Carolina has averaged 2.4 yards per carry over its past three outings and 2.9 over its last two.
Tulane has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.3 over its last two.
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