The UCF Knights (18-12, 9-9 AAC) clash against the East Carolina Pirates (10-19, 4-14 AAC) in the American Athletic Conference Tournament at Amway Center. The game can be seen on ESPNU at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 8, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 128.5 points with UCF set as a 13.5-point favorite.
East Carolina Pirates vs. UCF Knights ATS Prediction
In the Pirates’ last outing, they were dismantled by the Memphis Tigers, 90-70. Memphis won the rebounding battle. The Tigers had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. three), defensive rebounds (29 vs. 21) and total rebounds (43 vs. 24). East Carolina’s Isaac Fleming put together a solid game, recording 16 points, six assists and five steals.
The Knights were victorious over the Tulane Green Wave in their last outing, 60-51. The Knights made 17 of their 24 free throws (70.8 percent), while the Green Wave had a turnover percentage of 20.8 (above their season average of 16.6). B.J. Taylor was the top scorer from either team with 19 points on 5-for-13 shooting.
UCF could dominate on the defensive side of the ball as they square off against one of the NCAA’s worst offenses. The Knights rank seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.452), while East Carolina is 295th in effective field goal percentage (0.484). Moreover, the Pirates, who rank 327th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.192), could struggle to get to the line against the Knights, who rank 29th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.188).
East Carolina holds records of 10-19 straight up (SU) and 10-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Pirates are involved, as 14 of their 22 games have gone over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, UCF is 18-12 SU and 15-10 ATS. Contrary to East Carolina, games including the Knights have a tendency to finish under the total (60.0 percent).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, A.J. Davis scored a game-high 17 points and the Knights defeated the Pirates 59-39, covering as 11-point favorites. He also put up 10 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 98 points, which was 30 points below the projected point total of 128 points. The Knights had a much better turnover percentage (18.6 vs. 28.5) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 18.2).
East Carolina Pirates vs. UCF Knights Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – UCF, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
UCF ranks 106th in assists allowed per game (12.7) while East Carolina ranks 265th (16.1).
The Knights rank 108th in rebounds allowed per game (33.8) while the Pirates rank 247th (37.2).
UCF ranks 38th in three pointers allowed per game (19.3) while East Carolina ranks 141st (21.3).
The Knights rank 96th in blocks per game (3.6) while the Pirates rank 130th in blocks allowed per game (3.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, East Carolina is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
UCF is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Pirates’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 21.6, up from 8.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Knights have scored an average of 60.0 points per game (2.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 61.6 points per game (0.3 above their season average).
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