The Eastern Conference Final begins tonight. The Ottawa Senators are in Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins. Let’s take a look at our NHL playoff predictions.
| Senators vs Penguins ML +165 / -200 O/U 5.5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
The Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves in a somewhat similar spot as the Anaheim Ducks did last night. They came off an exhausting Game 7 victory against the Washington Capitals, and now only have had two days to regroup and prepare for their next series. They were spoiled by the first round victory against the Columbus Blue Jackets, in which they had nearly a week off between games.Tonight is a huge test of their mettle.
Ottawa has had three days off. While that may not seem like too much of a comparative advantage, it goes a long way. That’s an extra day of rest and an extra day to prepare for the high-octane, rush happy offense that would be coming their way regardless of who won Game 7 Wednesday night.
In three head-to-head matchups this season, the home team was undefeated. Pittsburgh and Ottawa traded blows in their first encounter back in December with the Penguins emerging victorious by a score of 8-5. Craig Anderson and Marc-Andre Fleury were both pulled as starters. Mike Condon and Matt Murray finished the game.
Condon then beat Murray in January 4-1, and again in March in the shootout. This will be just the second time this season that Anderson and Fleury will see each other.
The word is out of Pittsburgh that Matt Murray has been cleared to play. Even if he were fully ready to go, Fleury has earned this chance. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said as much in his press conference the other day. Fleury has been everything Pens fans could have hoped for and so much more this postseason. His heroics against Washington were reminiscent of his Stanley Cup run in 2009.
Fleury deserves this. He’s redeeming himself after seven years of people saying he’d never replicate his performance against the Red Wings again. And a goaltender switch after everything he’s done would be simply unfair.
It may be the hot hand fallacy, but I prefer to call it loyalty. Dance with the date that brung ya.
Marc-Andre Fleury grinning after robbing Alex Ovechkin. Appears to be enjoying Game 7. pic.twitter.com/eae71Cwzk1
— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) May 11, 2017
The home team is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Carl Hagelin is listed as doubtful tonight, as is defenseman Trevor Daley. Both missed significant time during the regular season with injuries, and it’s clear that neither one is at full strength. Hagelin missed Game 7 against the Capitals. Daley missed Games 6 and 7.
Viktor Stalberg is doubtful tonight for the Senators. Stalberg’s speed and two-way play will be sorely missed as the Sens try to keep up with the aggressive Penguins.
The margin of victory will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on this series. Pittsburgh is perfectly capable of pulling away in games. When the Penguins know they can overwhelm an opponent, they do. They beat the Blue Jackets by two goals or more three different times, and they trounced the Capitals in Game 2 6-2. They won Game 7 2-0 without an empty netter. They like to build a cushion for themselves.
Ottawa, on the other hand, is used to clinging on for dear life. They have won only one game by more than one goal- Game 6 against the New York Rangers, which was only by virtue of an empty netter with six seconds remaining in the game. They are an incredibly hard team to kill, but there is much less margin for error.
While the last series was all about offense for the Pittsburgh Penguins, defense will be at the forefront of the discussion tonight. Ottawa’s neutral zone trap is notoriously awful to break through. They love to force dump-and-chase entries, win battles along the boards and play keepaway when leading. Teams can exploit this for breakaways, but only once in a blue moon. The Rangers did it twice in Game 6 against the Senators for a pair of goals.
Pittsburgh will need to find a way to thread the needle.
Simultaneously, they could learn a thing or two. The Penguins not only allow a pantload of scoring chances, they are usually of a dangerous quality. Marc-Andre Fleury has saved their bacon this postseason. They will need to lock down the middle of the ice and force the Senators to the outside of the zone.
This has been done before. In Games 3 and 4 of the second round against the Rangers, the Senators were handcuffed to the boards. They were unable to get inside the hashmarks and drive to the net. If defensemen in front of them are mobile and keep their sticks in the passing lane, the Sens are not the best at weaving something out of nothing. They ordinarily play it safe, throw a bad-angle shot at the net and hope for a rebound.
Granted, there might be a few more rebounds that spring out off the pads of Marc-Andre Fleury than there were against Henrik Lundqvist, but it still is not an optimal strategy.
For what it’s worth, the Sens only ever fell into this lull in those two games on the road. At home, they were revved up and ready to attack. Plus, Guy Boucher is actually an incredibly smart coach when trailing. The second intermission is often where Boucher shines. I really have been very impressed with his ability to read the flow of the game and make adjustments to come out strong in the final frame of the game.
I look forward to the Boucher-Sullivan chess match this round.
Tonight, the Penguins are on home ice. Obviously, this makes them the heavy favorite. The Sens are 3-13 in their last 16 trips to Pittsburgh.
Tonight is going to be tricky for Ottawa, but not impossible. Expect them to make a push early and catch the Penguins off guard. Such a quick turnaround is dangerous. It’s the same reason I picked the Nashville Predators to win the first game of the Western Conference Final, and look what happened last night.
Prediction: Take the Senators to (barely) win tonight. If nothing else, it’s a chance to cash in on what is going to be a very tricky night for Pittsburgh. Play the under.
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