Eastern Conference Final Game 5 Predictions

A goaltender change shook things up for the Penguins in Game 4. The Eastern Conference Final returns to Pittsburgh tonight. Let’s take a look at the top predictions.

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

The Pittsburgh Penguins proved once and for all that I should never doubt my gut and that I deserve to be punished for wavering.

See, I picked the Pittsburgh Penguins to win this series in six games. Prior to Game 4, I wrote that the Ottawa Senators would win, meaning that the series would have to go seven in order for Pittsburgh to win. I strayed from my series prediction. In fairness, I did not foresee a goaltender switch. Matt Murray started in goal for the Penguins over Marc-Andre Fleury, probably marking the end of Fleury’s career as the Pittsburgh Penguins’ starter.

Never doubt yourself. Shame on me for second-guessing my own predictions. Silly Casey.

Pittsburgh looked like a rejuvenated team in the first period. Matt Murray turned aside nine first period shots. With less than a minute to go in the period, Sidney Crosby led a 3-on-2 with Olli Maatta and Jake Guentzel. As Guentzel drove the net, Crosby hit Maatta in stride. Maatta was in too deep to try a pass to Guentzel, so he sent the puck to the net, which caught Craig Anderson off guard.

It slipped under his pad and the Penguins held a 1-0 lead. The goal was Maatta’s first career playoff goal in 47 games.

The Penguins picked up just their second powerplay goal of the series in the second period. Phil Kessel found Jake Guentzel down low, who then crossed it to a kneeling Sidney Crosby. It’s not often that you see players kneeling looking to receive a pass, but Crosby positioned himself so that the puck could not get through him while he was on the doorstep.

It worked to perfection, since he could not field the pass cleanly but still managed to have the puck cross the goalline off his body. Pierre McGuire made a great analogy that Crosby looked like a shortstop trying to keep his body in front of a hard-hit grounder.

He waits… He SCORES!

But seriously though, did Sid just see the future there or what? pic.twitter.com/gh8KY5qI4S

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) May 20, 2017

The secondary assist gave Phil Kessel his team-leading eighth powerplay point this postseason.

Brian Dumoulin scored later in the period thanks to a bounce off Dion Phaneuf on a shot that would have gone wide. Clarke MacArthur would get the Senators on the board late in the frame, but the Pens would take a 3-1 lead into the final frame.

Tom Pyatt scored with five minutes remaining in regulation to bring the Senators within one. Jean-Gabriel Pageau split the defense and dropped a pass back for Erik Karlsson who had his shot deflected in front.

With 37 seconds remaining, the Senators got their final chance. The Penguins took a too many men penalty- which is egregious in of itself, but with a minute to go defending a one-goal lead? AND it was the second too many men penalty taken by Pittsburgh in the game? Yikes.

Though they moved the puck well, Ottawa simply ran out of time. Pittsburgh escaped with a 3-2 victory.

The first and most obvious takeaway is that Matt Murray played very well. He stopped 24 of 26 shots in the game. I’m not going to pretend that Fleury is a better goaltender- every metric in hockey says otherwise. On a personal level, I’m bummed that he could not get it done because of how likable Flower is. But he’s abdicated power before.

My guess is though that we’ve probably seen his last start as a Penguin.

Trevor Daley played in his second consecutive game and looked like a new man. He played eight more minutes (23:03) and looked much stronger on the move with Olli Maatta. Daley’s presence is all the more important as Chad Ruhwedel left the game with an injury. Another Pens blueliner bites the dust. That’s the last RHD the Pens had in their NHL fold.

Ottawa’s powerplay looked disorganized and ineffective. They went 0-for-4 in the game and are now 0-for-11 in the series. Going back to last series they are 0-for-24. If they want to get back in front in this series, they are going to need their special teams to step up in a big way.

Derick Brassard did not take any face-offs in the third period after a second period draw with Sidney Crosby. Brassard’s ankle simply gave out from under him and he left the ice for a period of time. Though he played the last period, it was clear he wanted no part of the face-off dot. Zack Smith took them when Brassard was on the ice.

I’ve criticized Dion Phaneuf before because I don’t think he’s a terribly good defenseman. Being in a New York TV market myself, I find him comparable to the Rangers’ Dan Girardi- slow, physical and has too much wear and tear on him to be effective. The game-deciding goal in this game went off of Phaneuf. And Pittsburgh knew it.

https://twitter.com/iancmclaren/status/865743529234006016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pensburgh.com%2F2017%2F5%2F19%2F15668182%2Fgame-4-recap-pens-strike-back-even-series

Pittsburgh now returns with a tied series and home ice recaptured. That’s bad news for Ottawa. They are going to have to step up their intensity on the road. Part of the problem is that the Pittsburgh Penguins are so fundamentally sound at home. The Sens’ neutral zone trap, for whatever reason, is far less effective away from the safe confines of Ottawa. Even dating back to their series against the New York Rangers, being away from home usually means a dip in quality of play.

That’s natural. But this is the Eastern Conference Final. Ottawa will need to block out the noise of what is sure to be a rocking PPG Paints Arena tonight.

I’m not betting against my series prediction again. The Penguins’ health is an issue, but they will be able to make it through. Their strength is at the top.

Prediction: Take the Penguins to win tonight. Play the under.

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