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Eastern Conference Final Game 7 Predictions

Eastern Conference Final

Well, here we are. Eastern Conference Final. Game 7. Penguins. Senators. Let’s do this.

May 25, 2017 – NHL Schedule
Senators vs Penguins
ML +170 / -200
O/U 5

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

Against the odds, the Ottawa Senators have forced a Game 7. They have a chance to not roll over for the first time in franchise history. When down 3-2 in a series, the Senators have lost all five series.

And don’t get it twisted. They will lose a sixth.

But let’s take a look at how they got this far.

Game 6 was all Penguins from the get-go. Pittsburgh was applying pressure hard but were just barely missing. Craig Anderson was in great position to make some fantastic saves and the defense was pinned. The Sens could not help but ice the puck once a minute.

As I tweeted at the halfway point in the period:

Though Pittsburgh outshot Ottawa 11-9 in the opening frame, they were 0-for-2 on the man advantage. The period ended scoreless.

The second period appeared to be more of the same. Pittsburgh came out dominant, aggressively attacking the puck carrier and forcing turnovers. The Penguins thought they found the first goal of the game a few minutes into the period, but were called for goaltender interference.

Trevor Daley made contact with Craig Anderson as Anderson was sprawled out in the crease. It appeared that as he drove the net, he pushed Anderson into the net allowing room for Daley to bang home the bouncing puck.

Here’s probably the best angle of it.

I’ll be honest. Goaltender interference is the worst, least-consistent penalty enforced in the National Hockey League. It’s atrocious. I have no idea what it is anymore. This is goaltender interference, but Pekka Rinne getting sat on in Game 6 of the Nashville-Anaheim series wasn’t? Or any of the non-interference calls on Cam Talbot in the Anaheim-Edmonton series?

I’m not saying this isn’t goaltender interference, it just is pretty weak by comparison to other examples that were not called.

It didn’t matter much in the end. Ball/puck don’t lie. Evgeni Malkin buried a beautiful goal just a minute later to give the Penguins an official lead.

Pittsburgh’s lack of discipline allowed Ottawa back into the game. Just past the midway point in the period, the Senators got their second powerplay opportunity of the period. Thirty-six seconds later, it became a 5-on-3. And the Senators made the Penguins pay.

With the Senators controlling the puck with time and space up top, Kyle Turris sent a slap-pass to Bobby Ryan in the hammer position at the left-wing circle. Ryan snapped a one-timer past the sliding Matt Murray.

The Sens’ 0-for-29 powerplay goalless streak was over.

The final few minutes of the second period, I must admit, were the best in the entire series. For as much flak as the Senators have taken for being prone to some low-scoring, low-octane games, this was one of the best sequences in the playoffs. Even Doc Emrick was out of breath calling the game, and he lives for this sort of thing.

Once again, Pittsburgh outshot Ottawa in the second period. This time the margin was 23-10, 34-19 total.

But shot differential and time on attack mean little to the Senators, who are the masters at using the second intermission to their advantage. Ottawa was able to recalibrate and strike early. Fredrik Claesson entered the zone and slid the puck to his left to Mike Hoffman. Hoffman in turn wound up and fired a slapshot at just the precise moment that Claesson was skating by Matt Murray to take away his vision.

Bingo. Sens up 2-1.

Pittsburgh would threaten many times in the third period but would not find the equalizer. A pair of late penalties, including an Ian Cole high stick and yet another too many men penalty doomed their chances.

Phil Kessel had one particular look with the net empty and an extra skater on. A cross-slot pass to him at the Ovechkin circle where Bobby Ryan scored his powerplay goal was held for just a second too long. Rather than pulling the trigger right away, Kessel hesitated to settle the puck, allowing Anderson time to square up to the shot. Hockey is a game of inches and milliseconds.

The Ottawa Senators are winless in five Game 7s in their franchise history, which is the worst ratio in the NHL. They will have to go on the road and beat the second-best home team in the NHL to break the hex. It is a venue in which they have succeeded infrequently. Counting their Game 1 victory, they are just 3-14 in their last 17 games in Pittsburgh.

If anyone is going to win this game for the Senators, it’s going to be Craig Anderson. Andy has had one heck of a ride this postseason after what was a tough year personally for him. He is 3-1 with a 0.76 goals-against average in his last four starts when facing elimination. He stopped 45 of 46 in Game 6.

Shooting on him will be some of the best playoff performers in league history. Evgeni Malkin won the Conn Smythe in 2009 and has six career assists in six Game 7s. He leads the postseason in scoring with 24 points. Sidney Crosby was last year’s Conn Smythe winner with 19 points. Phil Kessel deserved last year’s Conn Smythe even more with 10 goals and 22 points. Add on Jake Guentzel’s breakout year and the sudden surge of depth guys like Carter Rowney and Scott Wilson and the Pens have one hell of a deep team.

Plus, Patric Hornqvist is expected to re-join the forward group for Game 7. Justin Schultz could also be entering the lineup again as well. Hornqvist has seven points in 13 games this postseason and Schultz has been undeniably the best puck mover on the Pens’ blueline.

With the added offensive talent, it will be up to Pittsburgh’s coaches to make sure that they are utilized properly. If they are sheltered just a bit to protect them from further injury, they could be real difference makers in Game 7.

So, how does Ottawa neutralize the ever-present offensive threat on the other side of the ice? Well, as Clarke MacArthur said: boring the Penguins out of the building.

If the Sens can score first, and that’s a big if, they will need their forecheck to go to work. Once they get a lead, they have proven to be an incredibly tough team to come back on because of how frustratingly stingy they are with scoring chances. But they will need to get a lead first.

Until that first goal is scored, things will be very tense in Pittsburgh. Depending on which side of the scoreboard lights up first, the building will either be jubilant or mortified.

What makes me concerned for the Senators’ chances of survival is the way they won Game 6. While they were ahead on the scoreboard at the end of the day, they dodged way too many bullets to be sustainable. Another game like that and they are dead. They not only allowed quantity, they allowed quality in a big way.

While it would be easy to say “replicate Game 6,” in a way, they will want to avoid that at all costs. Leaning on Craig Anderson like Tiny Tim leans on a crutch is asking to be let down in the end.

See: New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, etc.

Game 7 will be fun. More fun than people thought that a Senators-Penguins game could be leading into this series.

But Pittsburgh is the better team by every measure. Losing this game would be rough.

And let’s be real, the ratings for a Nashville vs Ottawa Stanley Cup would have Gary Bettman pacing his bedroom at night.

Prediction: Take the Penguins to lock up the Eastern Conference for the second straight year tonight. Play the under.

To make a play on the Eastern Conference Final, visit our sports book at
https://www.betdsi.eu/gms-hockey.

Written by Casey Bryant

Casey is GetMoreSports' resident hockey fanatic and host of "Jersey Corner" on the GMS YouTube channel. He is the play-by-play voice of Marist College Hockey and the New York AppleCore. He currently works as a traffic coordinator for MSG Networks. Steve Valiquette once held a bathroom door for him.

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