Ellis Park is primed for the seasonal opener on July 1 and the meeting will run for nine weeks. This is not the ‘glory days’ type of meeting but it offers bettors a fine racing menu and it gives the horsemen a shot to make some hay.
The Grade 3 $100,000 Groupie Doll Stakes will be held on August 13 and it is the showcase of Ellis Park. It will be moved to a Sunday this year to avert any conflict with other major races around the country.
Ellis Park, originally Dade Park, was built in 1922. In 1954, the track was renamed to honor the Dade Parks’ longtime owner, James C. Ellis. In 2006, Ron Geary, a Kentucky businessman, purchased Ellis Park from Churchill Downs. The track is designed after the Saratoga Race Course and features 1.125-mile dirt track and chutes for seven furlong and one mile races.
One of the runners that could be prominent in the Groupie Doll is Finley’sluckycharm. This bargain racer only cost $77,000 but has already earned over $400,000. She has won eight of her ten starts and is coming off a pair of Grade 3 wins. One of those victories was in the Winning Colors Stakes. She was most recently successful in the Chicago Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 24. In that race the Bret Calhoun student went to the front and never looked back earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. Since being teamed with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. Finley’sluckycharm has won five of six races and the loss was in the Grade 1 LaBrea at Santa Anita.
Ivy Bell, who is trained by Billy Denzik Jr., ran second in the Chicago Handicap. Her trainer also has his eye on the big race at Ellis Park, Denzik: “We’ll probably look at the Groupie Doll at Ellis Park with her. We’ll just get her back and look at her, but maybe the Groupie Doll. I’d like to stretch her out to a mile and, shoot, I don’t see why she couldn’t do that. So that’s probably the next step.”
When looking to cash tickets at Ellis Park this meeting, bettors should concentrate on the trainers and riders and what they do best.
Steve Asmussen was the leading trainer last summer at Ellis Park but it was not easy. He sent out 73 runners and 16 won. That is a solid 22% clip but that figure was far from being the best at the meeting. Asmussen does it with quantity and quality. In the past five years he has sent out over 7500 horses and he has won at a 20% clip. More importantly maybe is the fact that 50% of those runners ran in the money. One of his more potent moves is when he drops a horse from a Maiden Special Weight race into a maiden claimer. Those runners win at a 23% clip and 54% of them run in the money. When Asmussen brings a horse back quickly he is also dangerous. He is 7 for 34 in the last five years when bringing a runner back between one and seven days.
Ian Wilkes spotted his horses great at Ellis Park last year. He sent out 33 fewer runners than Asmussen but 11 won. A toal of 13 others were in the money. His win percentage was 28% and 60% of his starters ran one/two/three. Sometimes, when looking at trainers, it can be an advantage to know what they are not great at traditionally. For Wilkes, that category is first-time starters. He is only 4% with his debuters in the last five years. Conversely, Wilkes is very good at moving horses from a route to a sprint. He has popped at 18% with that maneuver in the last several years.
For bettors at Ellis Park, it can be wise to take a look at the smaller barns. Last year Chris Hartman only saddled nine horses at the meeting but a third of them won. Hartman has a good eye for a purchase and won at 23% the last five years with first off the claim runners. He is a very good horseman and he can keep a horse feeling happy once that horse is thriving. In the last five years he has won with 24% of his last-out winners.
Dane Kobiskie did even better with three winners from seven starters. He has been a 20% trainer in the last few years and it’s not by mistake. Kobiskie’s career with horses began at a young age in Kansas on his family’s farm. He served in the United States Marine Corps from 1997-99, but was medically discharged after he broke his leg in an accident outside of training. Interestingly, Kobiskie worked for Asmussen when he was learning the game. He has nearly an identical record as Asmussen when he drops a horse from a Maiden Special Weight race into a maiden claimer. He doesn’t claim a lot of horses, but when he does he wins at 22%. He knows when to strike while the iron is hot. In the last five years he has brought 29 horses back within seven days and six of them won and eight others ran in the money.
When Tom Amoss shows up, get down. He only brought over five horses to run at Ellis Park last year and a pair won. Angel Montano and Eric Foster also must be watched. Together the conditioners sent out 28 runners and eight of them won.
As for the jockeys, the leading suspects will be back in full force. Last year Corey Lanerie eked out the jockey title by just three winners over James Graham. Miquel Mena and Brian Hernandez were tied for third in the standings with 21 wins but Hernandez is coming to this Ellis Park meeting on a roll.
He rode five winners on the Stephen Foster Handicap recently and is on course to win more Graded stakes than ever before.
Since his first full year of riding in his native Louisiana in 2004, when he won a career-high 243 races, Hernandez, 31, has been extremely steady. He has his name into some very potent barns and figures to be right there when leading rider honors are announced.
Sometime players have to look a bit outside of the box when looking for value and many bettors could do much worse than looking to Ellis Park this meeting.
