Expect a low-scoring game when the Elon Phoenix (12-9) and Hofstra Pride (14-6) collide at Mack Sports Complex. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 28.
The Pride enter this game hoping for similar success after dismantling William & Mary 91-63 on Sunday. Juan’ya Green was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points on 10-for-17 shooting. The Phoenix, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their demoralizing 82-64 loss against James Madison on Saturday. Brian Dawkins played well for Elon, recording 10 points, five rebounds, and one block.
Rokas Gustys and Green have been better than usual over the last five games for the Pride. During that stretch, Gustys has averaged 20.0 points, 14.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.8 steals, and 2.0 blocks, while Green has recorded 22.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 2.4 steals, and 2.8 three-pointers a game.
Scoring opportunities from the charity stripe may be sporadic for the Phoenix in this one. They’re 282nd in the nation in FTA rate (32.6), while Hofstra is among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (yielding a rate of 26.0, ranking 14th overall).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Pride winning the first matchup 80-76. Gustys put up a double-double in the victory with 19 points and 12 rebounds.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Hofstra, a big 10-point favorite, takes on Elon. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 163 points for this matchup. The Pride come into this game 14-6 Straight Up (SU) and 8-8-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Pride have no trouble scoring as they rank 30th in the nation in offense with 81.3 points per game. The Pride are one of the best in Division I in terms of three-point field goals, making 9.0 shots per game from beyond the arc. The rebounding edge goes to the Pride in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.1 boards per game. Hofstra is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.32.
As for their opponent, the Phoenix have records of 6-8 ATS and 12-9 SU. Elon has not performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 2-7 record. The Phoenix rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking seventh in the nation with 222 made (10.0 per game).
With the Pride’s last win against the Phoenix, their SU record is now 4-0 over Elon. The Pride also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 3-1.
Predictions: SU Winner – Hof, ATS Winner – Hof, O/U – Over
Notes
Hofstra is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hofstra’s last 6 games.
Hofstra holds a 6-2 SU record against the Colonial Athletic Conference this season, while Elon has an underachieving 3-5 SU record against the conference.
Elon averages 78.8 points per game (ranked 62nd). Hofstra, on the other hand, allows 74.8 points per game (ranked 253rd).
In its last game, Hofstra won by a margin of 28 points. Elon is 2-4 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Hofstra has a 3-0 record in blowouts.
The Elon Phoenix average 73.4 possessions per game and 1.073 points per possession. The Hofstra Pride earn fewer possessions with 72.5, but they score more points with 1.121.
Elon has an average effective field goal percentage of 52.6%. Hofstra is an even 5-5 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, the Hofstra Pride attempt 24.0 three point field goals per game and the Elon Phoenix attempt 29.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Hofstra has a winning 11-5 record, while Elon is 12-9.
Hofstra ranks 50th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.32, while Elon ranks 93rd with an A/TO of 1.19.
Hofstra ranks 62nd in offensive rebounding. When it comes to defensive rebounds, Elon ranks 79th.
The Hofstra Pride make an average of 6.7 steals per game. When the Elon Phoenix allow 6 or more steals, they are a solid 9-5.
