Enes Kanter may never return to Turkey, where he risks life behind bars for being politically outspoken. That is a no-no these days in his homeland, where freedom of speech has gone the way of the Ottomans. The starting center for the New York Knicks is applying for American citizenship.
But that is not all he is doing: Past the midpoint of the NBA preseason, he was leading the NBA in rebounding at 13.3 per game until Andre Drummond hauled in 20 Wednesday night.
Still, Kanter has dropped to 27-1 after being listed earlier at 55-1 to lead the league in that category this season, which some in the sports journalism gambling industry would label a “value bet.”
Preseason stats are notoriously unreliable predictors of what lies ahead in the regular season … sometimes. What helps in terms of looking into a crystal ball is projecting those numbers out over 48 minutes, and looking at how much playing time a particular player on a particular team might be getting.
In the case of Kanter, his per-48 minute rebounding average is a league-leading 28.7, with Domantis Sabonis of the Indiana Pacers second at 24.5.
The heavy favorite (-220) is Drummond of the Detroit Pistons, who has been playing 31 minutes per night in the preseason and has averaged 21.7 rebounds per 48 minutes. He had nine offensive boards vs. the Wizards on Wednesday to go with his six turnovers.
The second choice in the rebounding odds is DeAndre Jordan of the Dallas Mavericks (3-1), who has played in only one preseason game thus far.
But back to Kanter.
Last season, the backup for the Knicks was Kyle O’Quinn (now in Indiana and averaging 7.3 blocks per 48 minutes) playing 18 minutes per game.
This season in New York, it is rookie Mitchell Robinson, who will be up and down between the Knicks and the G-League. Next on the depth chart is Luke Kornet, so that likely means Kanter will be getting more than the 25.6 minutes he averaged last season.
So factor that in when determining why those 55-1 odds on Kanter dropped to 27-1.
Other notables who could be value plays:
Hassan Whiteside, Miami: If the Heat can’t trade him, they’ll play him. And through four preseason games, he is at 12.5 rebounds per game (third in the NBA) and 24.2 rebounds per 48 minutes (also 3rd). He is at 10-1 after sitting at 25-1 over the first 10 days of October.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee. Look, nobody expects the Greek SuperFreak to be the league leader in rebounding, which is why he was sitting at 100-1 alongside Russell Westbrook and LeBron James (who gobbled up 10 defensive rebounds in 18 minutes). But keep in mind that Jabari Parker will not be hauling down his share of rebounds anymore, so those boards have to go to someone. Giannis is averaging 11.5 rebounds in the preseason and 22.5 (5th in the NBA) per 48 minutes. His updated odds are 54-1.
Now, let’s have a look at some other preseason statistical categories and update earlier columns on these wagering opportunities.
SCORING:
Absolutely nothing can be discerned from the preseason.
James Harden leads the NBA at 23.8 ppg — unless you go to NBA.com, which ranks him 9th in the league at 18.8. (Robot sighting? Houston’s preseason record is 3-1).
Also, Kevin Durant is averaging 18 ppg. He will not be in the teens during the regular season.
ASSISTS:
Ben Simmons of the 76ers is leading the league during the preseason at 9.5, and his assist-per-48 minutes number is 16.6 — second only to Rajon Rondo’s 18.7. Rondo is 14-1 to lead the NBA, Simmons is 5.5-1, and John Wall is the favorite at 2-1. The only center on the board is Nikola Jokic of Denver at 58-1.
The most interesting prop on the board at BetDSI?
It may just be the odds on whether there will be a quadruple-double. Yes is 9-1. (it has been 24 years since anyone did it, and legend has it that Wilt Chamberlain had a quintuple-double that included 24 blocks.
Tomorrow, we will look at NBA triple-double props.
(NBA SCORING LEADER: CAN ANYONE BEAT OUT JAMES HARDEN?)
(NBA ASSISTS LEADER: WHY WOULD ANYONE BET AGAINST WESTBROOK?)
(NBA MVP: HANDICAPPING THE RACE AMONG SUPERSTARS)
