The Northern Iowa Panthers (12-11) will have their chance to beat the Missouri Valley’s best team when they square off against the Evansville Aces (18-5) at McLeod Center. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Feb. 3 and can be seen on ES3.
The Panthers were victorious over Southern Illinois 67-58 on Sunday. Bennett Koch played a pivotal role, recording his first double-double this season with 22 points and 11 rebounds. The Aces are coming off a 78-65 loss to Wichita State on Sunday. Egidijus Mockevicius scored 16 points and recorded 12 rebounds earning his 18th double-double of the season.
Second-chance points might be scarce for the Panthers in this matchup. They rank 348th in the nation in offensive rebounding (OR% of 19.2%), while Evansville is 32nd-best in the nation on the defensive glass (DR% of 74.7%). Furthermore, getting to the line could play a crucial role for the Aces. They rank fourth in the nation in FTA rate (49.9). However, the Panthers are among the best in the nation at keeping opponents off the charity stripe (ranking second at 23.3).
The Panthers have gone 12-11 Straight Up (SU) and 10-12 Against The Spread (ATS). The Panthers are one of the best in Division I in terms of three-point field goals, making 8.0 shots per game from beyond the arc. Not making mistakes with the ball is a staple of the Northern Iowa offense, which averages just 10.3 turnovers per game.
In the other locker room, the Aces head into the game with records of 9-8-1 ATS and 18-5 SU. Evansville is one of the top shooting teams in the country, converting .515 of its shots from the floor. Defenses have a tough time accounting for every player when up against the Aces, who are known for distributing the ball with 18.8 assists per game. The Aces are a terror on the defensive glass, averaging an impressive 28.2 defensive rebounds per game.
This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time these conference foes played, Northern Iowa won, but the win was not enough to overtake Evansville in their recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 4-6 SU over the last few meetings. The Aces also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-3-1. Northern Iowa topped the Aces in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. Evansville has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Evan, ATS Winner – Evan
Notes
Northern Iowa is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.
Northern Iowa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
Northern Iowa is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Iowa’s last 7 games when playing Evansville.
Northern Iowa is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Evansville.
Northern Iowa is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Evansville.
The Evansville Aces have a defensive rating of 95.6 (ranked 36th), while the Northern Iowa Panthers have an offensive rating of 108.4 (ranked 111th).
Evansville beats Northern Iowa in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Aces average 70.1 possessions and 1.107 points per possession, while the Panthers average 64.4 possessions with 1.084 points per possession.
Evansville has an average effective field goal percentage of 56.0% (ranked 15th in the nation). Northern Iowa is an underachieving 2-5 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Ranked third in the nation, Evansville has an average of 18.8 assists per game. Northern Iowa ranks lower at 257th with 12.3.
Evansville, the 88th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.3 per game. Northern Iowa does worse, ranked 300th with 2.3.
On average, Northern Iowa makes 5.5 steals per game. Evansville has a superb 14-4 record when it gives up at least 5 steals.
