The Fairfield Stags (16-11) will travel to Gallagher Center to play against the Niagara Purple Eagles (7-21) in their home finale. Action gets underway at 3:00 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 20.
The Purple Eagles come into this game on a high note after topping Marist 76-72 on Thursday. Matt Scott had 12 points, eight rebounds, and six assists for Niagara. The Stags are coming off a 74-71 win against Canisius on Thursday. Tyler Nelson shot 7 for 11 and led in scoring with 22 points.
It will be a tale of two tempos, as the fast-paced Stags (ranked 14th in the nation in possessions per game) take on the grind-it-out Purple Eagles (266th).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Stags won the first game 73-68. Nelson was a standout player in the game, producing 27 points, five rebounds, five assists, two steals, and five three-pointers.
The Purple Eagles have gone 7-21 Straight Up (SU) and 11-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Purple Eagles have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 78.1 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 63.7 points per game. The Niagara defense has done poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 77.0 points per game, well above their season average of 71.0.
Over on the other bench, Fairfield has a SU record of 16-11 and an ATS record of 11-11. Fairfield has been particularly bad ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 2-8. They sport the 28th-ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging 77.6 points per game. The Stags rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking 20th in the nation with 250 made (9.0 per game). Defenses have a tough time accounting for every player when up against the Stags, who are known for distributing the ball with 15.9 assists per game.
In their previous meeting this season, Fairfield beat Niagara, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record over their most recent games (5-5). However, with an 8-2 record, Niagara has the advantage ATS. Niagara held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Fairfield never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Fair, ATS Winner – Fair
Notes
“Niagara is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Niagara is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Niagara’s last 6 games “.
“Niagara is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Niagara is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Niagara’s last 6 games at home”.
“Niagara is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Fairfield”.
“Niagara is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Fairfield”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Niagara’s last 5 games when playing Fairfield”.
“Niagara is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Fairfield”.
“Niagara is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Fairfield”.
“The total has gone OVER in 8 of Niagara’s last 12 games when playing at home against Fairfield”.
Fairfield averages 78.4 points per game (ranked 54th). Niagara, on the other hand, allows 71.0 points per game (ranked 134th).
Fairfield won its last game by a three-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, Niagara is 4-1. Fairfield is 3-0 in close games this season.
The Niagara Purple Eagles average a field goal percentage of 40.5% this season. The Fairfield Stags have split their games this season (9-9) when opponents have a FG% of 40.5% or greater.
The Niagara Purple Eagles rank higher based on their field goal percentage (320th) than their effective field goal percentage (335th). The Fairfield Stags rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (75th) than their field goal percentage (127th).
Fairfield ranks 41st in assists, recording 15.9 per game. Niagara performs worse at 326th with 10.9 assists per game.
Niagara has forced an average turnover percentage of 17.4% this season. Fairfield has a subpar 5-9 record when its TO% is 17.4% or higher.
