The South Alabama Jaguars and the Air Force Falcons prepare for battle at Arizona Stadium in the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl. The game is scheduled to start on Friday, December 30th at 5:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on the American Sports Network or on Campus Insiders.com. As of now, the Falcons are -13 point favorite and the total sits at 57.5.
It really has been a weird 2016 campaign for South Alabama. The Jaguars have defeated the South Eastern Conference’s Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Mountain West champ San Diego State Aztecs. Yet South Alabama went 2-6 in the Sun Belt conference play. Not until they beat New Mexico State on Saturday, did the Jaguars qualify for their second bowl in school history.
South Alabama (6-6):
There’s some talented players on the sidelines in Mobile. However, consistency has been the problem for head coach Joey Jones’ team. The off and on offense strives for balance, but turnover-prone signal-caller Dallas Davis has failed to fully utilize his play makers on offense. This year, Davis has completed 188 passes for 2,461 yards with only 10 touchdowns and 11 picks.
Tail back Xavier Johnson handled his business the last time he stepped out on the gridiron in Week 14. The starting back jolted for 154 yards and three trips to pay-dirt to help secure the team’s bowl birth. Overall, Johnson has rumbled for just under 800 yards and a team-high ten touchdowns.
Tight end Gerald Everett is the Jaguars number one threat in the passing game. The combination of his size and speed has created problems for opposing schools throughout the season. Coming into this game, Everett has reeled in almost 50 passes for 717 yards and four scores. Wide receiver Josh Magee has pitched-in another 44 catches for over 650 yards and another four touchdowns.
The Jaguars won’t win contests on defense, and allowing 4.9 yards a carry will be a serious problem against the run-happy Air Force Falcons. Also, top defensive lineman Randy Allen, who leads the Sun Belt with 18.5 tackles for loss, won’t do much up field pursuing against the Falcons.
Air Force (9-3):
It’s been another successful year for head coach Troy Calhoun’s Falcons. In fact, they have been victorious in at least eight games in his ten seasons at the helm. Air Force heads into Tuscon on fire, winners of five straight, capped by a season-ending upset over Boise State. The Falcons were also the winner of the Commander-in-Chiefs Trophy when they triumphed over rivals Army and Navy this season.
Air Force’s offense didn’t miss a lick after starting quarterback Nate Romine went down for the year in November. Arion Worthman took the reigns and is off to a fine start. Worthman is a less polished passer than Romine, but moved the ball effectively enough over the ground to produce the nation’s #3 ground attack.
Altogether, Arion Worthman has completed 16 passes for 339 yards with 3 touchdowns and two picks. He has also scrambled for another 605 yards on 101 carries and reached the end zone on another six occasions. Nate Romine is officially listed as questionable for the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl, but most sources say he will sit out the contest.
It’s running back by committee in Colorado Springs, and three back field mates have gashed clubs for plenty of yardage in 2016. The trio has rumbled for over 2,100 yards and 15 scores. Bruising runner Jacobi Owens leads this bunch with 783 yards and D. J. Johnson leads the team with ten rushing touchdowns.
Air Force has opened up their offense a little more this year, and wide receiver Jalen Robinette is a huge reason why. The skilled wide out has caught 33 passes for almost 900 yards and five scores. Once Nate Romine went down to injury, the passing game has not been as effective but Robinette will be a threat come Friday.
On defense, Air Force’s 96th ranked secondary can be beaten, allowing 22 touchdowns. But the run defense gets a ton of help from all-league safeties Weston Steelhammer and Brodie Hicks. Defensive end Ryan Watson and line backer Haji Dunn will spend a lot of time in the South Alabama backfield as the Falcons are 14th in the nation, allowing only 118 yards per contest.
Trends and Notes:
The Jaguars are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
The Over is 8-2 in the Jaguars last 10 non-conference games.
The Over is 6-2 in the Falcons last 8 games overall.
This is only the second addition of the Nova Home Loan Arizona Bowl.
Game Prediction:
The Air Force Falcons are on a roll and unfortunately South Alabama is in their way. The Jaguars inability to stop the run is going to pose a huge problem and the Falcons secondary can create turnovers when the Jaguars pass.
The combination of the two will be too much for South Alabama to overcome. Yes, the Jaguars have proven they can play with some of the nation’s top squads, but their weaknesses really stand out in this match-up.
Place your money on a Falcon team that can control the clock with their running game and create short field situations with a few timely interceptions. Take the Falcons to impose their will and be up by two touchdowns when the fourth quarter game clock runs out. Air force 34, south Alabama 17.
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