The Atlanta Falcons drive towards a division title hit a snag last week when they suffered a deflating 29-28 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the Falcons still control their own destiny in the NFC South with four games remaining on the schedule and they will have an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column when they visit the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Remember, this is a team that started hot last year and blew it down the stretch. Will they do the same thing again in 2016?
Moneyline: Atlanta -260
Handicap/Spread Odds: Atlanta -5.5
Total O/U: 46
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 09/15/13 | LA 24 – ATL 31 | ATL -4 | O 47.5 |
| 1/21/10 | ATL 34 – LA 17 | ATL -3.5 | O 43 |
| 12/28/08 | LA 27 – ATL 31 | LA 14 | O 44 |
| 12/02/07 | ATL 16 – LA 28 | LA -3 | O 40 |
| 01/15/05 | LA 17 – ATL 47 | ATL -7 | O 50.5 |
On The Falcons Side of the Ball (7-5 Record, 7-5 ATS)
Atlanta’s second loss in three games happened in brutal fashion as the decision to attempt a two-point conversion rather than kick an extra point came back to haunt them and ultimately was the difference in the game. Eric Berry picked off Matt Ryan in the endzone and took it back all the way for a two-point play that put Kansas City ahead by one in the final minutes of action. Berry capped off an impressive day after a pick-six earlier in the day. Berry was an absolute beast in the Chiefs win but ultimately it was the Falcons mistakes that came back to haunt them. Now it will be on Ryan and company to bounce back with a mistake-free effort in Los Angeles on Sunday.
Atlanta has dropped two of its last three and they can’t afford to give up any more losses if they want to maintain control of their own destiny in the NFC South. While this looks like an easy opponent, they come into this game banged up and can’t take this opponent lightly. Julio Jones is dealing with turf toe and Mohammed Sanu has a groin injury. If one or both are out, it will make this game exponentially more difficult for them.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | KC | L 28-29 | L -5 | O 50 |
| 11/27/16 | ARI | W 38-19 | W -4 | O 49 |
| 11/13/16 | @PHI | L 15-24 | L 2 | U 48.5 |
| 11/03/16 | @TB | W 43-28 | W -4.5 | O 49 |
| 10/30/16 | GB | W 33-32 | L -3 | O 51 |
On The Rams Side of the Ball (4-8 Record, 4-7-1 ATS)
The Rams suffered another embarrassing loss last week when they dropped a 26-10 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots. Los Angeles managed to record just 162 total yards in the loss to the Patriots, including just 25 yards in the first half. That is the lowest total in any game this season and the Rams are going to have to figure things out ahead of this contest to avoid another embarrassment. Ryan and the Falcons can put up points in bunches so it will be on rookie quarterback Jared Goff and the cast around him to do something to try to keep up. The LA defense did a decent job against Tom Brady and company last week but they aren’t good enough to win games on their own without a little help from the offense.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | @NE | L 10-26 | L 13 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/16 | @NO | L 21-49 | L 8 | O 45 |
| 11/20/16 | MIA | L 10-14 | L -1 | U 39 |
| 11/13/16 | @NYJ | W 9-6 | W -1 | U 39 |
| 11/06/16 | CAR | L 10-13 | P 3 | U 44.5 |
Quick Analysis
It is bad news for the Rams that Atlanta is 5-1 against the spread on the road this season and desperate to get back in the win column following last week’s disappointment. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 against the spread at home this season and has failed to cover three in a row overall including back-to-back double-digit road losses to New Orleans and New England that last two weeks.
Prediction
The Falcons don’t have time to worry about what went wrong for them last week as they desperately need to get back on track and deliver a win in Los Angeles. The Rams haven’t done much in terms of providing resistance the last two weeks, so look for Atlanta to get back on track with a decisive win on the road and add to their impressive record against the spread as the visiting team.
Pick: Atlanta -5.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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