The Air Force Falcons fly into West Point to settle their differences with the Army Cadets on Saturday, November 5th at Noon ET. The contest between the two academies can be seen on the CBS Sports Network. As of now, the Falcons are -2 point favorites and the over/under sits at 48 points.
The Commander-in-Chief’s trophy is still there for the taking, and the Falcons can claim it with a win over the Black Knights on Saturday. The Navy Midshipmen won the coveted prize between the academies last season, but this match-up will likely be the deciding factor.
It has been two decades since Army has laid their hands on the trophy, and Saturday is their chance to break that streak. All that the Cadets have to do is win out against Air Force this weekend and Navy to end the season.
Air Force (5-3):
The Air Force Falcons were on a three game losing streak heading into Fresno State last weekend. Things looked grim, as the Falcons fell behind early 14-0. However, Air Force’s offense went off in the second half, and they came back to beat the Bulldogs 31-21.
The resurgence was led by Sophmore quarterback Arion Worthman. Worthman was called upon because the Falcons starting signal-caller Nate Romine left the contest when he injured his ankle. The sophomore stepped-up and ran the rock 20 times for 100 yards and two scores.
Although he is questionable for Saturday’s game, Nate Romine has been the engine that charges the Falcons run game. This season, he has completed 45 passes for over 1,200 yards with ten touchdowns and four picks. More importantly, Romine has carried the rock 95 more times for 284 yards and three more trips to the end zone.
Undoubtedly, Air Force is a running team. A plethora of options attack defenses via the ground out, of the famed Winged-T formation. Altogether, Air Force tail backs have accumulated over 1,800 yards rushing and 20 plus touchdowns. Standout Timothy McVey, leads the nation’s 6th ranked rushing offense with five trips to pay-dirt.
Jalen Robinette is the go-to wide out on the few occasions that the Falcons decide to move the ball through the air. Usually, Robinette makes big plays off of the play-action pass. This season, Robinette has caught 24 balls for over 600 yards and four touchdowns.
Air Force used an opportunistic defense in it’s come back victory at Fresno State last weekend. The Falcons forced four turnovers, including a 35 yard pick six. For the 2016 campaign, the Falcons have been especially stout against the run. Air Force ranks 14th in the country, allowing only 114 yards per game.
Army (5-3):
Army put together an impressive 14 point fourth quarter surge to put 21-13 nail in the Wake Forest Demon Deacon’s coffin last weekend. The Black Knights were led by their captain Ahmad Bradshaw. The junior under-center scored twice in the game, once through the air and once via the ground. As a result, the student-athlete racked up over 200 yards of total offense.
So far this season, Ahmad Bradshaw has toted the ball over 130 times for 561 yards and five touchdowns. He also has passed the football 62 times, completing 28 throws for 474 yards. Unfortunately, he has served-up six interceptions and has only two touchdowns on his resume’.
Andy Davidson is the Black Knight’s featured running back. He leads the 2nd ranked rushing attack in the nation, with 662 yards and seven scores. Eight other ball carriers have found the back of the end zone for a team that averages almost 350 yards over the ground a game.
Like Air Force, the passing game is usually used after the run game has taken it’s toll on opposing defenses. Out of the play-action pass, five different pass catchers have reeled in over 30 balls for almost 600 yards and five touchdowns.
The Black Knight’s defense was rather impressive in their match-up against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons last week. Army forced three turnovers of their own, and allowed only 343 yards of total offense.
The Black Knights defense has been stingy to opposing schools all season long. They only allow 16.5 points per game this season. That number, is good for the 9th best scoring defense in the nation.
Trends and Notes:
The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Black Knights are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.
The Over is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 road games.
The Under is 7-3 in the Black Knights last 10 games overall.
The Road team is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Game Prediction:
This game is the toughest one of the bunch this week to make a prediction on. A lot of that is because of the question-ability of Air Force quarterback Nate Romine. If the starter was a for sure bet to play, I wouldn’t hesitate to take the Falcons. Unfortunately, that is not the case.
Army is at home for this contest, and we all know what a six win will do for the Black Knights. There’s no secret to either of these offenses, it will be run, run, run and more run.
Again, neither school is capable of doing much through the air. They rely on the ground game, and they’ll both pound the rock. This match-up will come down to whichever team runs the ball more efficiently than the other. Take the better defensive front seven in this one, and that would be the road team’s in this contest. Air Force to cover the -2 by a field goal.
