This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair as the Western Michigan Broncos square off with the Air Force Falcons with a chance to finish the season with a Famous Idaho Potato Bowl win. Air Force (9-3) and Western Michigan (8-4) have both won four of their last five. The game starts at 5:45 p.m. ET on Saturday and will be available on ESPN.
Air Force won a close one over Colorado State 27-24 in its last game. Garrett Brown had a solid outing in the win, totaling five catches for 88 yards. Western Michigan dropped one to Northern Illinois 31-21 in its last game. Corey Davis had a solid game for the Broncos, totaling five receptions for 59 yards and one TD. Daniel Braverman finished with 88 yards on five catches.
Western Michigan is a slight three-point favorite as they take on the Falcons. The matchup currently has a 55-point Over/Under (O/U). The Falcons enter the game with records of 9-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-5 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, Air Force is 4-1 both SU and ATS. Air Force has kept their running game going like a well oiled machine lately, averaging 270.4 rushing yards during its last five matchups. Air Force isn’t likely to commit many costly blunders this week. With just 4.5 penalties per game, the Falcons are one of the least penalized teams in the nation (25th) when playing at their home stadium.
Over on the other sideline, the Broncos have 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS records this season. The Broncos went 4-1 both SU and ATS over the last five games. They sport the 23rd-ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging 33.9 points per game. Odds are Western Michigan will rely on its passing attack against a defense that allows 256 passing yards per game, ranking 101st in the nation. Over the last five games, the Broncos turned it up on the defensive side of the football, only allowing an average of 17 PPG. Their season average is 23.8 points, so they’ve shown a marked improvement. The Western Michigan pass defense has given teams fits during those games. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 224.6 passing yards against this horrifying bunch. There is no feeling-out process to start a game for the Broncos, who average 8.5 points in the first quarter.
Predictions: SU Winner – WMU, ATS Winner – WMU, O/U – Over
Notes
Western Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Air Force’s last 9 games.
Western Michigan is 7-2 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Air Force is 9-1 SU when leading after three quarters.
Air Force is undefeated (4-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 3-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
According to national passing ranks, Western Michigan has an advantage on both offense and defense. Its passing attack (ranked 37th in the country) will face the 101st-ranked pass defense of Air Force, while its 70th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 118th-ranked passing game of the Falcons.
Air Force has allowed 24.0 points per game at home, which is ranked 62nd in the nation. Western Michigan has put up 33.9 points per contest in away games (ranked 23rd overall in FBS).
