It’s time. The game is upon us and even though none of us wanted the New England Patriots (15-2) to be here, they made it. They’ll face the Atlanta Falcons (13-5), in whom all our hopes now rest.
This line and total has not budged in two weeks, which just means the sportsbooks nailed it from the start.
Will this game be the last gasp of the Patriots’ dynasty or the beginning of a Falcons’ era where they finally “rise up?” Let’s get fired up and find out.
Super Bowl LI: Patriots at Falcons (+3, 59 O/U)
How the Patriots Got Here
To accuse the Pittsburgh Steelers of shitting the bed in the AFC Championship is to pretend they actually made it to the bed in the first place. The only thing the Steelers could have done to show up less to the AFC title game would have been to stay on the bus and never set foot inside Foxborough. Frankly, that might have been best for everybody.
It all comes down to this… #SB51 #RiseUp #Patriots pic.twitter.com/FXHXZxdhEt
— NFL (@NFL) February 1, 2017
The Patriots beat the Steelers 36-17 to close out a lopsided Championship Sunday. Tom Brady was stellar, completing 32-of-42 passes for 384 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Which sounds more impressive than it was since no Steeler defender was within 10 yards of a Patriots receiver in the game. Way to play a zone defense, fellas.
Chris Hogan caught nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns and was never once covered that I can remember. When Brady got bored throwing to Hogan, he tossed eight passes Julian Edelman’s way for 118 yards and a touchdown. It was like a glorified scrimmage and Mike Tomlin should have fired himself after the game on Facebook live. Then move on to his true calling, building a Pittsburgh Steelers Cheerleading Squad (the Steelers are one of the few NFL teams that don’t have cheerleaders).
If Tomlin didn’t want to deal with an entire offseason of cheerleader jokes, he should have actually coached and prepared his team.
How the Falcons Got Here
Aaron Rodgers came into the NFC Championship looking almost invincible. Over the next four quarters Dan Quinn’s defense made him look absolutely vincible. And, yes, that’s a real word. We all just learned something new today.
My homie @DangeRussWilson stopped by @NFLTotalAccess to give us the blueprint on how to beat the Falcons and Patriots. Enjoy @Seahawks pic.twitter.com/wot39SOdZ2
— Michael Robinson (@RealMikeRob) February 1, 2017
Meanwhile on the opposite side of the field, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan continued his MVP-caliber season, completing 27-of-38 passes for 392 yards and four touchdowns. Nine of his passes went to Julio Jones for 180 yards and two touchdowns. The rest were spread around all over the field.
The Falcons’ defense corralled Rodgers and his ability to make plays out of the pocket, sacking him twice, but hitting him a whole lot more than that.
The X-Factor
There are two X-Factors in this game and both are in the Falcons’ hands. Dan Quinn matched up with Josh McDaniels back in 2014 as defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, so he knows what’s coming. He also knows how to rattle and defend Tom Brady, so there’s no excuse for a Steelers-sized screw up Sunday. On offense, Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan have to make the conscious decision to be patient and just take what the Patriots give them, and it will be plenty. The Falcons have too many weapons to stop, so New England is going to focus on clogging up the middle run lanes and doubling up Julio Jones. Ryan and Shanahan can’t force anything.
The Pick
This has been a solid season for me. It’s not been my best regular season, that was 2013 when I went 170-96-1. It’s also not been my best playoff run. That was last year when I went 10-1. But it’s been decent. Respectable.
Since I started writing publicly and professionally about the NFL I’m 12-5 in my Super Bowl picks. And this has been during the greatest Super Bowl era of human history. Before the Seahawks beat the Broncos in 2014, I had picked 10 of 11 Super Bowls correctly, the only loss being a last-minute TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes to give the Steelers a 27-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.
I bring that up, because I’m 1-2 in my last three Super Bowls, and that victory was last season, when I went completely against the consensus and picked the Denver Broncos.
The consensus this time is on the Patriots. The sportsbooks have picked them and writers (and Tom Brady’s family) are already preparing to bask in the schadenfreude of Roger Goodell handing Brady the Lombardi Trophy after suspending him for DeflateGate.
That’s not going to happen. If you took all the history out of this game, all the titles the Patriots have won and just looked at the rosters, season results and stats, you’d pick the Falcons to win by a touchdown. So that’s what I’m going to do. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a two-score win. Falcons 27, Patriots 20
Championship Week
Straight up: 1-1
Against the Spread: 0-2
Playoffs
Straight up: 7-3
Against the spread: 5-5
Season
Straight up: 164-100-2
Against the spread: 133-133
To make a wager on Super Bowl LI, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
