Multiple moves in early free agency will have ripple effects in your upcoming drafts over the summer, but a handful of moves have already impacted the top of your draft board, knocking perennial high-round picks down a few slots. It’s not that some of these guys won’t still go in the upper half of your digital football draft, but there’s no doubt that their new teams and situations make their value take a hit.
These five guys all made big news by changing teams and none of them are bad signings or potential busts, but a change of scenery and new offensive schemes (along with issues at other positions) will make all five of these players see their production drop in 2015.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The problem for Murray is that he’s in way too crowded a backfield in Philadelphia to put up these kind of numbers again. Murray’s back-up in Dallas last season was Lance Dunbar who carried the ball a total of 29 times for 99 yards. Dunbar added 18 catches for 217 yards, but never scored a touchdown and maybe saw five or six snaps a game. Contrast that to Murray’s situation with the Eagles where Chip Kelly pet Darren Sproles will get his carries and touchdowns (he scored six last year) and former San Diego Chargers starter Ryan Matthews will get plenty of work too until he’s inevitably injured in week four or five.
Adding Sproles to the Eagles roster last season cost then starter LeSean McCoy 26 touches, 672 yards and six touchdowns from the previous season. Speaking of McCoy…
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
Seemingly moving McCoy out of a backfield with Darren Sproles looks like a positive move on paper, but that’s before you realize he’ll have an even worse situation in Buffalo with Fred Jackson. If Jackson is healthy, he gets his touches both as a runner and a receiver and is the biggest reason that C.J. Spiller posted just one 1,000-yard season in his entire stint with the Bills, in 2012 when Jackson was hurt.
Jackson has a career average of 4.4 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per catch. He can pass block too, which might keep McCoy sidelined on a lot of passing downs as well. Jackson is the reason the Bill traded Marshawn Lynch away in 2010. McCoy’s never shared a backfield with a player like him as a pro.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Trading for Jimmy Graham was a blockbuster, no-brainer move for the Seattle Seahawks, especially how they had to watch his fellow All-Universe tight end Rob Gronkowski abuse their own team in the Super Bowl. Graham is a beast, an offensive juggernaut and there’s a real chance he’ll never make the Pro Bowl again.
For Graham, moving to the Seahawks offense should cause a significant drop in his offensive numbers while at the same time giving him the potential to get a Super Bowl ring. Seattle just doesn’t run an offense that will give Graham the chance to catch 85 passes. Maybe 60 or so, but that’s it. The recently re-signed Lynch will get the red zone touchdowns, if the Seahawks have learned even one thing from their ridiculous call at the end of the Super Bowl. Graham will have good numbers and always be a factor, making every player around him better. It’ll just come at the cost of his own statistical success.
Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas will likely be an aberration on this list, seeing his catch and yardage numbers go up as he’s instantly the best offensive weapon the Jaguars will have coming into the season. The difference for Thomas will be his touchdowns. The Portland State alum caught 12 last season and 12 in 2013 all thanks to some pinpoint passing from future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. Manning taught Thomas how to play the position and turned him into a star. Now a very rich star. He’s a tremendous asset to the Jaguars and the team should be commended for making the moves they should to add weapons to their offense and second-year quarterback Blake Bortles. If Thomas scored five touchdowns all of next season I’ll be shocked.
Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers
No wide receiver outside of the New York Jets’ practice facility is going into a worse situation than Torrey Smith. Smith is a big play receiver who won’t have a quarterback that can accurately throw him the ball anymore. The drop off from Joe Flacco, one of the best big game quarterbacks of his generation to Colin Kaepernick, one of the most tattooed quarterbacks of his generation, is significant. Smith is just as likely to be primarily used as a downfield blocker as Kaepernick scrambles around after abandoning a pass play after his second read as he is to catch a touchdown bomb.
Stevie Johnson has the exact same skillset as Smith and caught only 35 passes last season for 435 yards with Kaepernick attempting to toss him the ball. Johnson was targeted just 50 times, total. That means that for Smith to match even last year’s yardage production (which wasn’t great) he’ll have to catch every single pass thrown his way, regardless of where he is on the field or the defender he’s working against. Good luck.
