NBA fantasy draft season is in full swing and thanks to the tracking from Yahoo!, we’ve already got some data to work with. One of the things we noticed is that there are a lot of players that are going way too high in drafts – mostly because of offseason hype.
Here are five players going early in drafts – or at least much earlier than you might expect and judging by the position, you might be better off letting someone else reach for them.
Ty Lawson, Houston Rockets
Average Draft Position: 75.2
Lawson is the perfect example of a good player whose expectations have skyrocketed after being moved to a contending team. Few people realize that his fantasy value could be on the decline. Lawson has been dealing with important issues away form the court that could take away from his ability on it this season and he will certainly have some major competition for touches in Houston too.
He’ll have to beat out Patrick Beverley for the starting job and then share the rock with James Harden, Trevor Ariza and Dwight Howard. Lawson is still just 27 years old and he does have the potential to be All-Star good for the Rockets but all of the preseason hype has led to his value being overstated. Careful reaching for him as there are some pitfalls you have to be aware of here.
Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
Average Draft Position: 55
There has been a lot of talk about Faried as a potential fantasy stud heading into each of the last two seasons and despite his underwhelming statistics, that is bound to be the case again this year. Part of that is because he finished last season on an absolutely torrid pace.
Faried averaged 18.7 points and 10.6 rebounds in the final seven games of last season and once again some are calling on him to be a potential fantasy sleeper star. The more likely scenario has Faried averaging around 12.6 points and 8.9 rebounds like he did last season. It’s a new coaching situation and a new cast of characters in Denver. Don’t assume anything. Make sure you don’t reach for him as he certainly has the potential to be a fantasy bust.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
Average Draft Position: 33
Whiteside exploded onto the scene as an unlikely fantasy sleeper last season when he averaged 11.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game for Miami but you’d much rather have invested in him as a waiver wire free agent than a top 35 pick. It’s not like he has a long, reliable track record, so don’t be surprised if ends up on the other side as a potential fantasy bust for this season.
Whiteside still averaged less than 24.0 minutes per game last season and the addition of Amar’e Stoudamire combined with the healthy return of Chris Bosh could cut into his minutes. Whiteside might still be worth taking a flier on in later rounds but it’s a risky play to reach for him so high.
Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets
Average Draft Position: 37.9
Jefferson averaged 16.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game last season but he will turn 31 years old this season and NBA centers typically don’t age well. Factor in that the Hornets have a strong cast of young big men including Cody Zeller and rookie first round pick Frank Kaminsky, and there is reason to believe his numbers could slip.
Jefferson still has the potential to hit his averages from a year ago but his age combined with Charlotte’s improvement on paper indicates that last season’s averages should be considered his absolute ceiling.
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Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
Average Draft Position: 95.2
The veteran Martin was limited to just 39 games last season and has played more than 68 games only once over the last four seasons. It’s a case of buyer beware when it comes to spending a top 100 pick with him this season. Martin will turn 33 this season and while he averaged 20.0 points in 33.4 minutes per game a year ago, his role is bound to be reduced on an improving young Timberwolves team this season.
Everybody knows about the reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins and rookie first-overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns, but Zach LaVine will also see time in Minnesota’s backcourt this season. Martin is the steady veteran but the team’s ideal situation would be to reduce his role as the youngsters emerge. When you factor in the injury history too, he could turn out to be too expensive as a top 100 player.
