The No.8-seeded Florida Gators (18-13) get together with the No.9-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks (16-15) in the second round of the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Action begins at 1:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10 and can be seen on SEC and ES3.
The Gators enter this game hoping for similar success after topping Missouri 82-72 in their last game. Chris Chiozza had 17 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds for Florida. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, are coming off a 76-61 loss at the hands of South Carolina in their last outing. Moses Kingsley recorded 13 points, seven rebounds, and three blocks.
Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a key role in the matchup. Florida commits the 22nd-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 16.4%), while Arkansas’s gambling defense causes the 28th-most (opponents’ TO% of 19.9%).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Gators winning the first matchup 87-83. Dorian Finney-Smith was a top performer in the victory with 22 points, nine rebounds, one assist, two steals, and two three-pointers.
The Gators come into this game 18-13 Straight Up (SU) and 15-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Gators have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 30th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 40.0 per game, while the Razorbacks rank 141st in the nation with 36.8 per game. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, teams have to fight for open shots against the Gators, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the country at .411. Expect Florida to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Razorbacks, who are one of the most foul-prone teams in the nation with an average of 21.4 fouls per game.
Over on the other bench, the Razorbacks have 16-15 SU and 15-12 ATS records. Most recently, Arkansas is a meager 2-8 ATS over the last 10 games. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Razorbacks. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.48.
The Gators’ win over Arkansas in their last game bumped their SU record to 9-1 over Arkansas in their most recent meetings. Additionally, with a 6-4 record, Florida has the advantage ATS. Arkansas held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Florida never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Ark, ATS Winner – Ark
Notes
The Arkansas Razorbacks have a defensive rating of 104.2 (ranked 65th), while the Florida Gators have an offensive rating of 106.6 (ranked 155th).
Arkansas beats Florida in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Razorbacks average 72.0 possessions and 1.093 points per possession, while the Gators average 69.4 possessions with 1.066 points per possession.
Florida has an average effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. Arkansas is an abysmal 4-12 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Florida attempts an average of 22.0 three pointers per game and Arkansas attempts 17.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Florida Gators have a solid 14-8 record while the Arkansas Razorbacks have a 4-5 record.
The Arkansas Razorbacks rank 15th with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.48, while the Florida Gators rank outside the top 100 at 110th with an A/TO of 1.17.
Florida, the 30th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 40.0 rebounds per game. Arkansas does worse, ranked 141st with 36.8.
Arkansas ranks 108th in offensive rebounds, while Florida ranks at 72nd in defensive rebounds.
On average, Arkansas forces a turnover rate of 19.9%. When Florida turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 6-3 record.
