The Florida Gators and the LSU Tigers will settle their differences on Saturday, November 19th in Death Valley. The crucial SEC game will start at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on the SEC Network. As of today, the Tigers are -13.5 point favorites to defend their home turf and the game’s total rests at 38.5.
The Gators enter this match-up with a shot at clinching the SEC East title and playing the Crimson Tide for the conference championship. Florida is coming off a 20-7 victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks, but will not have the services of quarterback Luke Del Rio in this game.
#23 Florida (7-2):
The Gator passing game has been lackluster at best this year, although back-up quarterback Austin Appleby did throw for two scores this past Saturday. Appleby has started three games for the Gators in 2016, completing 61 passes for 671 yards with five touchdowns and two picks.
Florida lives and dies by their running game, and they will need to get running back Jordan Scarlett going early and often if they hope to have a chance against LSU. Last week, Scarlett ran for 134 yards in the victory against South Carolina. All told, the back has accumulated 617 yards on 118 carries and has reached pay-dirt six different times.
Three Florida receivers work together to get the job done in the passing game for the Gators. The trio has combined for 93 catches for well over 1,000 yards and six scores. Wide out Antonio Callaway leads the way, totaling 533 yards with a 15.2 average yard per catch.
Defensively, the Gators will try to limit the run game and put the pressure on LSU quarterback Danny Etling to beat them with his arm. That is when Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson make their mark, creating turnovers with interceptions. Even though the secondary ranks third in the nation, the front seven is no slouch either. In 2016, the unit is allowing only 111 rushing yards a game (11th).
#16 LSU (6-3):
Similar to the Gators, LSU relies on the rushing game to move the ball and put points on the score board. When they are forced to pass, they look to quarterback Danny Etling to move the chains. Since stepping in, Etling has reeled in 1,378 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Tigers romped over Arkansas in a 38-10 triumph this past Saturday. Running back Derrius Guice jolted for 252 yards and two touchdowns. His counterpart Leonard Fournette added another 98 yards and three touchdowns himself. Together, the duo has amassed almost 1,700 yards over the ground and have 17 end zone appearances for their efforts.
Three wide receivers share about the same amount of catches, yards and scores for the LSU Tigers. As a whole, they have caught 75 passes for over 850 yards and six scores. Unfortunately it’s not been enough to balance the offense, the Tigers rank 112th in the nation in passing offense.
The Tiger’s defense did its part in last week’s 38-10 victory over the Razorbacks. Holding an opposing school to just ten points is about all you can ask for. One reason for their success is the Tigers are especially tough against running backs in 2016.
The Tigers rank 16th in the nation against the run (114.1). LSU also defends the pass well, allowing teams just under 200 yards through the air (29th). This front seven will be the best that the Florida offensive line will see all year.
Trends and Notes:
The Gators are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Under is 8-3 in the Gators last 11 road games.
The Under is 6-0-2 in the Tigers last 8 home games.
The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Game Prediction:
The time has come for the Gators to put all the doubters aside in 2016. It’s not the ideal situation, playing on the road in Death Valley against one of the nation’s best defenses. Florida will need to control the clock, limit mistakes and play an almost perfect game to come away with a victory.
LSU bounced back nicely from the Alabama loss, pounding Arkansas into submission on the road. Now, the Tigers are back in the friendly confines of Tiger Stadium and poised to dash Florida’s hopes of a shot at an SEC title.
Let’s face it, neither team has all that great of a quarterback, and both of these clubs rely on their defense and running games. Nothing has happened during the season for either of these teams to change that now. The two advantages for the Tigers are, they have two stellar tailbacks, and they also get this game at home. A defensive battle will result in the LSU Tigers besting the Gators 27-13. Take LSU to cover the -13.5.
