The No. 18 Florida Gators (10-2) travel to play the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) this week in what looks to be a key matchup. The nation’s top rusher, Derrick Henry (1,797 yards, 22 TDs), will be key to the outcome of this contest. It will begin Saturday, Dec 5 at 4:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
Alabama beat Auburn 29-13 last week. Derrick Henry had an outstanding performance on the ground in the win, gaining 271 yards and one TD on 46 carries. ArDarius Stewart also had a big game with 81 receiving yards and a TD on eight receptions. Florida didn’t have the same success as Alabama, getting dominated by Florida State 27-2. Kelvin Taylor had a big game on the ground for the Gators, rushing for 136 yards on 24 carries.
Alabama is a substantial 17-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 40 points.
The Crimson Tide enter the game with records of 11-1 Straight Up (SU) and 7-5 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, Alabama is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Alabama rushing attack has averaged 216.6 rushing yards in the last five games. Turning to the Crimson Tide defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. The Gators could have a difficult time running the ball against the No. 1 run defense in the nation. The Crimson Tide give up 78.9 yards per game on the ground. One of the keys to the game will be whether the Gators can protect the quarterback against Alabama’s aggressive pass rush. The defense ranks third in the nation in sacks with 3.4 per game.
Across the field, the Gators have a record of 7-5 ATS and 10-2 SU. In the previous five games, Florida has a record of 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. The Gators are playing better defense than they have all year, only allowing 13 PPG over their last five games, which is well under their season average of 15.5 points. Florida’s ninth-ranked pass defense has given its competition headaches. Opponents have only thrown for 171.7 yards per game against this intimidating group.
Predictions: SU Winner – Alabama, ATS Winner – Alabama, O/U – Over
Notes
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Alabama’s last 9 games.
Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games when playing Florida.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 6 games when playing Alabama.
Florida is 8-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Alabama is 11-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
The Florida defense has forced an average of 2.0 turnovers per game this season, but Alabama is a perfect 4-0 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
The Alabama offensive passing attack is ranked only 75th in the country, while the Florida pass defense is ranked ninth. The Gators passing game is ranked just 74th, compared to the 17th-ranked pass defense of the Crimson Tide.
