The (16) Florida Gators and (9) Michigan Wolverines kick-off their season against one another in Jerry’s World in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, September 2nd at 3:30 p.m. EST. The match-up between the storied universities can be viewed on the ABC Network. The powers that be, have the Wolverines as a -4 point favorite and the over/under at 44.5.
These schools have squared-off three times previously, all in bowl games. The outcome was always the same, the Michigan Wolverines came out victorious. Most recently, the Maize and Blue spanked the Gators 41-7 in the 2016 Citrus Bowl.
That was the first year for each coach at their school, but Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain are each in their third year’s now. Most folks will be watching the Alabama-Florida State game, but this is arguably the second-best match-up on Saturday’s slate.
(16) Florida Gators
The Gators finished 9-4 last year, and claimed the SEC East title. Afterwards, Florida lost the SEC Championship game to Alabama but easily won the Outback Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes 30-3. Believe it or not, the Gators finished 116th in the county in offense, so some semblance of an offense needs to arise.
Quarterback Luke Del Rio, the son of Jack Del Rio, was the starter for most of last season, but was injured for much of it. Now, Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire is pushing him for the starting gig. As of now, Del Rio hasn’t named a starter for the opener on the 2nd.
Last year, Luke Del Rio was spotty at best. After an injury plagued 2016, he accumulated 1,358 passing yards with eight touchdowns and eight picks. Malik Zaire watched DeShone Kizer from the side lines in South Bend.
Florida certainly didn’t help matters much in the off-season. The Gators lost several players to graduation but also to a credit card scandal. Seven players were caught up in multiple debacles, including their best wide receiver Antonio Callaway. Callaway was arrested for marijuana possession.
In 2016, the talented wide out caught 54 passes for 721 yards and three score. All were team-highs. Now, Brandon Powell and DeAndre Goolsby will need the shoulder the load. Last season, the two combined for 83 catches for over 750 yards and five touchdowns.
Senior Mark Thompson and junior Jordan Scarlett should see the majority of the carries out of the back field. Combined, the two recorded almost 150 carries for nearly 1,200 yards and eight trips to glory. Don’t sleep on Lamical Perine either. Perine held his own, rushing for 421 yards on 91 carries and another touchdown. He also is the best receiver of the three.
On the defensive side, assistant coach Randy Shannon will take over. Shannon played on and coached championship defenses at THE U. He will have is work cut out for him because the Gators lost eight starters from last years top 10 defense. In fact, Florida has fielded a top 15 defense for the last nine seasons.
The back half of the Gator’s defense is the biggest question mark. The SEC’s best tandem, Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson, left early for the NFL. Senior Duke Dawson moves back to corner back, while sophomore Chauncey Gardner is expected to fit in at safety. Gardner has potential to be great, he proved that to finish off 2016 by earning Outback Bowl MVP honors.
(9) Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines won 10 games in 2016, but also had three setbacks. Two of those were loses to their hated rivals the Ohio State Buckeyes and another 33-32 to Florida State in a thrilling Outback Bowl. Even so, Michigan’s head coach Jim Harbaugh has this team headed in the right direction.
Michigan is also a team that has a reliable starting quarterback in Wilton Speight. Speight was good in his first season under-center, throwing for 2,538 yards with 18 touchdown tosses and only seven picks. Believe it or not, Jim Harbaugh has not made a decision on his starter as senior John O’Korn just won’t give in to Speight.
Whoever gets the nod at quarterback, he’ll have all new receivers to throw the ball to. Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt are all off to the NFL. Nevertheless, it is Michigan and the Wolverines do boast some of the nation’s best young talent. Players like Kekoa Crawford, Eddie McDoom and five-star freshman Donovan Peoples-Jones — need to contribute immediately.
The Wolverine’s running game should be fine. The trio of Chris Evans, Karan Higdon and Ty Issac are all back. Together, the trio combined for over 1,450 yards and 15 end zone appearances. Evans led this group averaging seven yards per carry. Obviously, Michigan will look to pound the rock early and often until the receivers find their footing.
Defensively, the Wolverines were hit hard in the off-season. Last season, they finished their campaign allowing the fewest points per game in the Big 10 (14.1ppg). The talented unit also surrendered the second-fewest in the nation. In addition to that, the Wolverines ranked 11th in the nation in points per game (40.3) and ranked second in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (212.9ypg).
Unfortunately, they return just one defensive starter, after losing Heisman finalist Jabrill Peppers and star corner Jourdan Lewis. Whether or not coach Jim Harbaugh can fill these voids is yet to be seen.
Prediction
In their first two contests, Big Blue beat Florida in shootouts. They won in the 2003 Orange Bowl 38-30, and then in the 2008 Citrus Bowl, 41-35. In fact, just two years ago, they blasted the Gators by another 34.
Amazingly, every one of those contest’s were in Florida. With 10 new starters on defense for the Wolverines and two new starers and tons of suspensions and injuries for the Gators, I’m starting to wonder if that over 44.5 is just too low considering the history.
Also, the Wolverines are -4 point favorites. Now this makes a little more sense to me. Both teams have proven quarterbacks but Wilson Speight is the better of the two. Also, Michigan brings it’s running backs to the party and all three are very good.
The Gators will be one-dimensional, thanks to poor decisions and graduation of their receiving corps. I’m not a fan of the four point line here, so you might consider buying it down a bit or use it in some parlay action. Either way, I’m suggesting that is the play. Michigan 26-20 over the Gators.
Trends
The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
The Under is 4-0 in the Gators last 4 non-conference games.
The Under is 6-1 in the Gators last 7 games overall.
The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
The Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Over is 5-0 in the Wolverines last 5 non-conference games.
The Over is 9-2 in the Wolverines last 11 neutral site games.
The getmoresports.com NCAA College Football Throwdown Podcast will be returning to the air on August 24th. We will be highlighting the first five games on August 26th of the 2017 NCAA College Football season. That will be the first of three installments leading into the first week of the season. We also we will be covering our expectations for the Heisman Trophy front runners as well as predictions for conference winners and team totals.
Our second NCAA College Football Throwdown is penciled in for August 29th. In that installment, we will be discussing all the games that will be played on August 31st and the 1st of September.
Our third segment will officially be airing on August 31st. In this edition of the NCAA College Football Throwdown, we will be covering all the relevant games for Sept 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
