Here’s what you must understand about the perfect run you are witnessing right now. So rare they may not be experienced in a single human lifetime, the perfect run is like a new comet entering the solar system, recognizable, yet unidentified and and a real danger to crash and burn right into us. Going 4-0 last week started the run and all it took was an unprecedented team-wide meltdown from the Cincinnati Bengals and Blair Walsh pulling a Ray Finkle that careened so far left that that it’s joining the Bernie Sanders ticket as vice president.
To make that perfect run I had to ignore NFL history. Never before had all road teams won in the wild card round so picking them all should have been a mistake. But looking at the games, I ignored history. I trusted in talent, in coaching and in my gut. And I’m doing it a again here in the NFL Divisional Playoffs, easily the toughest games of the playoff season to pick. Prepare yourself as the saga of the Perfect Run continues with The Perfect Run Strikes Back.
Saturday
Kansas City at New England (-5)
Few teams needed a bye week before the playoffs more than the Patriots (12-4). New England ended the season with a page-full of injuries, including quarterback Tom Brady and lost their last two games costing them home field in the playoffs.
Almost the entire starting offense is on the injury report with wide receivers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman both listed as questionable along with Rob Gronkowski. On defense Chandler Jones was already questionable before he was hospitalized over smoking synthetic marijuana or whatever crazy weird drug he did earlier in the week. Dont’a Hightower? Rob Ninkovich? Both banged up and questionable too.
Tom Brady, Brandon LeFell and safety Devin McCourty are all listed as probable and will all play, but who knows how effective any of them will be?
The Chiefs (12-5) come in with their best pass rushers nursing injuries with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston both dealing with knee issues. Tight end Travis Kelce is listed as probable with a groin. But really that’s it for the Chiefs. They come in healthy and on an 11-game winning streak and with the Pats seemingly on the ropes, you can understand why so many people are picking an upset here. Not me. If my perfect run is to end, then I will happily watch it die on the hill of a Patriots defeat. I don’t think New England is done vexing us yet. Patriots 24, Chiefs 20
Green Bay at Arizona (-7)
The Cardinals (13-3) entered the final week of the regular season as a Super Bowl favorite. They promptly got their ass handed to them by the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers (11-6) entered the playoffs on a two-game losing streak of their own, even missing out on an AFC North title in the final week of the season. They easily had the best offensive and defensive performance of the wild card round. For some reason, neither of these team’s final games is factoring into this line or most pundits’ picks.
When you look across the picks landscape, I’d imagine the Cardinals are an overwhelming favorite. Three weeks ago this same Cards team beat the hell out of the Packers, humiliating them 38-8. People look back at that and think what’s different here 20 days later?
A lot. Aaron Rodgers came to life last Sunday and the Green Bay offense looked like it was supposed to for the final three quarters of their walk-away win over the Redskins. With the offense rolling, the defense became a sack and turnover-forcing machine. And here’s the fact that no one is talking about, Carson Palmer has never really played in a playoff game. Sure, he started one for the Cincinnati Bengals back in 2009, but he was knocked out of it immediately with a torn ACL. He’s never made another playoff start. Palmer is having the best season of his life, but is he really the guy to take out a hot Aaron Rodgers? I say no. Packers 27, Cardinals 23
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Sunday
Seattle at Carolina (-1.5)
To make the perfect run a reality, I have to buck trends. The Seahawks (11-6) are suddenly a very trendy pick. Seattle comes in still clinging to life after Zeus himself climbed down from Mount Olympus to reject Blair Walsh’s field goal attempt right back in his face last Sunday. Somehow barely surviving a game makes people believe the Seahawks can take down the best team in professional football.
Cam Newton led the Panthers (15-1) to near perfection already and even in their one loss, they were in the game until the final seconds ticked off the clock. Carolina went down fighting in a meaningless game that, if anything, took that pressure of perfection off their shoulders and freed them up to make their Super Bowl run. Trust me, I too understand the burden of perfection.
Back in Week Five the Panthers beat the Seahawks 27-23 and I see this game going about the same way. Cam’s quest for perfection might be over, but his quest for a Super Bowl ring begins Sunday. Panthers 30, Seahawks 27
Pittsburgh at Denver (-7.5)
Regardless of PacMan Jones’ belief that Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Antonio Brown was faking his concussion, the NFL’s concussion protocol felt differently and Brown will miss Sunday’s game against the No. 1 seeded Denver Broncos (12-4). The Steelers (11-6) will also be without running back DeAngelo Williams again, but will have Ben Roethlisberger back under center even though he has maybe one arm.
The Broncos come into the game as America’s Team, with all eyes on Peyton Manning expecting him to make a final run. Unfortunately for the rest of the teams in the playoffs, 52 of those eyes belong to his teammates who are true believers that Peyton will take them to the promised land before heading off into the sunset.
The story is too good to end here, and maybe it won’t end at all. The sheriff is here to clean up this town. Broncos 33, Steelers 20
Last Week
Straight up: 4-0
Against the spread: 2-2
Overall
Straight up: 145-115
Against the spread: 121-139
