We’ve had a couple of weeks to sort through the 2016-17 season and here, right as the official NFL league year is on the cusp of wrapping up, we have an opportunity to look back at what’s really important; how I did on my predictions.
I know. It’s all you’ve been thinking about.
But I’m here now and we’ll go through them all together.
First up, as I do every season, I begin with Five Bold Predictions for the upcoming football campaign and this year I pretty much killed it. I went 4-for-5, only missing my second prediction that the New England Patriots would open the season 1-3.
So what hit? Well, I can guarantee you I was the only person outside of a sports bar in Boston that picked the Patriots with Jimmy Garoppolo to beat the Arizona Cardinals in week one. I’m probably the only human on the planet that said the Cardinals wouldn’t make the playoffs. I followed that up with a declaration that the Washington Redskins would also be spending January at home. That one actually went down to the wire.
My most daring prediction I saved for last. I foretold that San Diego Chargers head coach Mike McCoy would NOT be the first coach fired this season. It was a real roll of the dice and one McCoy really tried to make me the first game’s opening whistle. But not only did McCoy make it through the entire season, Los Angeles Rams head coach Jeff Fisher was the actual first coach fired. It was like I got two Christmas presents in one box.
When you look at my season predictions, it’s easy to see that I missed the mark going all in on a return to the Super Bowl (and win) for the Carolina Panthers. In my defense, they did not inform me in the preseason of their plans to thoroughly shit the bed in 2016.
So what did I hit? I picked three of the four AFC division winners and two of the NFC winners. I also got that the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants would both make return to the playoffs. Finally, I had the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers both in their conference championships. Not too bad.
Record-wise, I hit the Houston Texans perfect (9-7) and nearly hit the Redskins (I said 8-8, they finished 8-7-1).
My worst pick? Figuring the Baltimore Ravens would finish 10-6. The Ravens showed the heart of a sea cucumber all season long. I don’t feel nearly as bad about thinking the Cincinnati Bengals would go 11-5. The Bengals had won 10-plus games every year since 2012. Nobody on Earth saw a complete collapse this season.
In my awards predictions I hit Offensive Rookie of the Year (Dak Prescott) and Coach of the Year (Jason Garrett).
Finally, I finished up a pretty solid picks season with a mediocre playoff run.
Final Season Record
Straight up: 164-101-2
Against the spread: 133-134
Playoffs
Straight up: 7-4
Against the spread: 5-6
It’s certainly not my worst performance, but doesn’t match my all-time best in 2013 (170-97-1).
Who was the best at picking straight-up games this season? Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times and Josh Katzowitz of Forbes both finished 179-86-2 which is just outstanding work and makes them both lifelong enemies to me as far as I’m concerned.
I finished right in the middle of the NFL punditry pack, tying with ESPN’s Mike Clay and Merril Hoge.
Who was the worst NFL game picker on the planet this season? That honor goes to CBS Sports’ Jason La Canforna, who finished an abysmal 150-115-2. If all you did was pick the home teams to win this season, you would have gone 155-109-2. That means La Canforna was five games below the “select all” button on a web browser.
While La Canforna was alone at the bottom, he had some company below the home teams threshold. Fox Sports’ Chris Chase finished 151-114-2, just one game ahead. CBS Sports’ John Breech and Pro Football Fucus’ Nathan Jahnke went 154-111-2.
The spread was a nightmare for everybody, so much so that most guys didn’t pick all the games each week.
I finished tied for 12th in the country with the Dallas Morning News’ Jon Machota and Brandon George, the Boston Globe’s Scott Thurston and Newsday’s Brandon George, all with 133 correct picks.
Again, it was Katzowitz from Forbes who embarrassed us all, finishing with 151 correct picks against the spread, a good 11 games up over Jamey Eisenberg from CBS who finished second with 140.
Katzowitz, pal, you are on notice.
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