I’m coming in hot for Week 4 of the NFL season after going 11-5 against the spread in Week 3. Could it be that I’m finally getting a handle on what’s already been one of the oddest NFL seasons ever? I’m not counting on it just yet.
I opened the week 1-0 as the Los Angeles Rams remained perfect, beating the Minnesota Vikings 38-31 and covering the -6.5 they were giving. I’m now officially over .500 against the spread for the season, which means I’m due for a Death Star-sized disaster in Week 4. Here’s your Friday Afternoon Quarterback NFL Week 4 picks and locks.
Byes: Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, O/U: 48)
Few people want to crow about the demise of the Patriots more than I do, but just like Michael Myers and the Halloween franchise, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will always come back. Patriots 27, Dolphins 24
Related: NFL Betting Guide
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, O/U: 47)
So far all the Texans have managed to do is get a school board member fired. Has Bill O’Brien looked into educational administration? This whole football coaching thing isn’t for him. Colts 24, Texans 16
Credit to Bill O’Brien for making it miserable to watch one of the most exciting young offensive talents in the NFL.
— Ross Bolen (@WRBolen) September 23, 2018
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-4, O/U: 53)
Everybody is about to forget about the Bengals after a tough, two-game road stretch against 2017 playoff teams, but if the AFC North was any more garbage, it would release a rap single exclusive to Instagram. Falcons 23, Bengals 20
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, O/U: 45)
How nervous are we about that -9.5 this week, Pack? Somebody needs to check Josh Allen’s gear for Mario mushrooms before this game. Packers 27, Bills 16
https://twitter.com/joshallen_facts/status/1044023172247556097
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3, O/U: 44)
The Lions are coming off the biggest victory for their franchise in years in a dominating win over the Patriots last Sunday night. It’s just the kind of moment that can spur a change in a franchise’s fortunes, but since we’re talking about the Lions, I’d like to go ahead and congratulate the Cowboys right now. Cowboys 23, Lions 17
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, O/U: 38.5)
The Good Place returns at the same time the Jaguars need to bounce back from a loss? That’s a heavenly coincidence. Bortles! Jaguars 27, Jets 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3, O/U: 46.5)
The Fitzmagic got a little Fitztragic with a loss to the Steelers on Monday night, but to give up three points to the Bears? Let’s not go Fitzcrazy. Buccaneers 29, Bears 20
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+3.5, O/U: 41)
Carson Wentz didn’t play like an MVP in his first game back from a torn ACL, but he looked a lot like a franchise quarterback. Marcus Mariota still isn’t 100 percent, but I don’t think the Titans win this game if he’s 200 percent. Eagles 27, Titans 16
I think it's fair to wonder why Marcus Mariota wasn't just the starter today #TENvsJAX pic.twitter.com/kSc8PgLDR1
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) September 23, 2018
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3, O/U: 39)
Josh Rosen will make his first official start for the Cardinals and since the Seahawks don’t muster much of a pass rush, there’s a good chance he’ll finish it. Seahawks 23, Cardinals 10
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, O/U: 45)
I know we’re all excited about Baker Mayfield, but how can a rookie quarterback withstand all the pressure coming form Oakland’s front seven while sipping a mixed drink from a coconut and sitting in a lawn chair? Raiders 26, Browns 23
Baker Mayfield will make his NFL starting debut against the Raiders. Since 1980, four rookie QBs made their NFL starting debuts against the Raiders and all lost. The last? Tim Tebow in 2010.
— Rick Gosselin (@RickGosselin9) September 27, 2018
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, O/U: 46)
The Chargers just put up 23 points on the road against the Rams. The 49ers just put up C.J. Beathard’s house for sale. Chargers 34, 49ers 10
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3, O/U: 50.5)
With the exception of the spread in the Falcons-Bengals game, I’ve been chalk up until now. That’s probably a dumb move considering dogs went 10-6 in Week 2 and 9-7 in Week 3. To make up for my stupid picks earlier, I’m picking the Giants to win a shootout with the Saints even though they haven’t scored 30 or more points since 2015. See? Smart. Giants 33, Saints 30
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, O/U: 50.5)
I can’t figure either of these teams out, not just from week to week, but from play to play. If this keeps up, Pittsburgh Dad is going to forget how to count down from three backwards. Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5, O/U: 55)
Let me just make my case here. Denver is as tough a place to play as there is in the NFL. Kansas City’s defense hasn’t stopped anyone all season. The Broncos defense will, undoubtedly, be the best Patrick Mahomes has faced as an NFL starter and the only defense that’s held him without a touchdown pass or 300-plus yard game in his four NFL starts. On NFL Pickwatch, 88 percent of punditry is picking the Chiefs. But much like Pee Wee Herman during his Big Adventure, I’m a loner, Dotty. A rebel. Probably an idiot. Broncos 27, Chiefs 24
This week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 1-0
Last week
Straight up: 9-7
Against the spread: 11-5
Season
Straight up: 26-20-2
Against the spread: 24-24
