We should have this whole thing figured out now, right? We’ve officially entered the second month of the NFL season and everybody’s Power Rankings are looking about the same. We know who the good teams are. We know who the bad teams are. It’s those mediocre teams that are causing all the trouble. As always in the Friday Afternoon Quarterback, I’m here to help. And, barring that, make a few jokes.
I didn’t like the 10 points the New England Patriots were giving in the Thursday night game against the Indianapolis Colts, but as usual, Tom Brady didn’t care what I liked. The Pats toyed with not covering for a few minutes in the fourth quarter before a late pick tore up betting stubs all over America.
I like the Pats tonight. I don't like the spread (-10). Patriots 27, Colts 23 #INDvsNE
— Adam Greene (@TheFirstMan) October 4, 2018
If there’s a quarterback cliff coming for Tom Brady, it looks like he and Bill Belichick are going to hit the gas and jump off it like Thelma and Louise. The man was 34-of-44 for 341 yards, three touchdowns and two picks. Both picks were deflections off his own receivers’ hands.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | NFL Parlay Betting
Byes: Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3, O/U: 45.5)
Baker Mayfield has everyone so excited they’ve forgotten the Browns are still the Cleveland Browns. Yes, I checked. Ravens 27, Browns 24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, O/U: 48)
If you’ve been wondering if Patrick Mahomes is human, you’re not alone. Apparently his own team thinks he’s a muppet. And he just might be the Monster at the End of This Football Season holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (+5, O/U: 39.5)
The Titans just beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Bills just got turned away from Hardees with a handful of expired Big Ham & Swiss coupons. Titans 27, Bills 13
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6, O/U: 43.5)
I’ve flirted with the Giants for weeks now and much like my favorite waitress at Buffalo Wild Wings, nothing has come of it. I’m tagging out, Eli. Panthers 30, Giants 20
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-3, O/U: 42.5)
How are the Jets favored here? Is this that Mandela Effect everyone is talking about? Broncos 20, Jets 16
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, O/U: 58)
For the last two weeks, the only defense that’s been able to stop the Falcons is the Falcons’. The Steelers are here to help. Falcons 33, Steelers 27
Matt Ryan is the first player in NFL history to lose back-to-back games with 350 Pass yards, 3 Pass TD and 0 Int. pic.twitter.com/qMV6nvF7rx
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 30, 2018
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, O/U: 51)
Aaron Rodgers called out Mike McCarthy for his inept playcalling after a 22-0 victory over the Bills last week. Here’s what’s funny about that; McCarthy has always been terrible and every time you see Rodgers drop back, plant his back foot, then have to dance around, know that it’s because of horrific, high-school level play design and no one is open. Rodgers has, single-handedly, kept McCarthy employed in the NFL for a decade. Now that Rodgers’ knee is hurt, he can’t move and is forced to play only from the pocket so suddenly he notices what the rest of us have seen since George W. Bush was president. For the first time, it’s clear to Rodgers how absolutely awful his offense is. The only joke I have to go with this is that McCarthy is still in the league. Packers 23, Lions 20
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, O/U: 48.5)
The Bengals show up as a favorite for the first time this season. Not only are they favored, but it’s by a touchdown over another 3-1 team. Am I sure I haven’t stepped inside a worm hole or rogue wardrobe portal? Bengals 34, Dolphins 20
Andy Dalton is on pace to throw for a career high 4,788 yards and 44 TD at a 65 percent completion rate
— Sean Ross Sapp of Fightful.com (@SeanRossSapp) September 30, 2018
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, O/U: 52.5)
Lo, we meet again, Anthony Lynn, my old, old enemy. You are not playing the Bills or a 49ers team without Jimmy Garoppolo (that still almost beat you). You’re playing a Raiders team that, as much as we joke about Jon Gruden and Khalil Mack, is better than its 1-3 record. It’s time for the vultures to start circling overhead in Carson. Raiders 37, Chargers 27
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4, O/U: 40)
How bad have the Cardinals been when the 49ers with C.J. Beathard at quarterback are four-point favorites? Lost (along with the game) in Josh Rosen’s first start for Arizona last week, was the absolute barrage of drops from his wide receivers, including two from Larry Fitzgerald. I have to believe the Cards’ wideouts will choose to bring both hands and lay off the buttered popcorn before this game. Cardinals 27, 49ers 23
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, O/U: 46.5)
Kirk Cousins played an incredible game last week in spite of being pressured 13 times by Aaron Donald alone. And Donald just sacked him twice out of that. Meanwhile, Cousins went 36-of-50 for 422 yards and three touchdowns. Carson Wentz is nearly back to form and the Eagles are far from done, but this Vikings team is due to score an upset. At some point the universe has to balance out that Bills loss. Vikings 33, Eagles 30
Kirk Cousins has thrown significantly more passes while under pressure than any other quarterback in the league so far this season. pic.twitter.com/MjOOptVCz8
— PFF (@PFF) October 2, 2018
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+7, O/U: 50.5)
The Rams have three total three-and-outs on offense this season. That’s it. Last week against the Cardinals, the Seahawks did not convert a single third down. They were 0-for-10. Earl Thomas is out. This one could get uglier than Jeff Fisher’s color work for CBS by halftime. Rams 38, Seahawks 17
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3, O/U: 45.5)
The Texans are a blown Colts fourth down conversion away from coming into this game 0-4. No worries though, Bill O’Brien, that fourth loss is coming. Cowboys 34, Texans 24
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52.5)
The Saints are 3-1 and could just as easily be 1-3. If Jay Gruden was a good coach, the extra week to prepare for one of the worst defenses in the league would spell a guaranteed win for Washington. Since he’s hot garbage, I’ll just have to squint my eyes and make this pick like I’m getting a TB shot. Redskins 29, Saints 27
Gruden is asked what he’ll do if Brees breaks the record and there’s a stoppage in play to mark the moment: “Probably clap” #redskins
— Kareem Copeland (@kareemcopeland) October 4, 2018
This week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 0-1
Last week
Straight up: 9-6
Against the spread: 8-7
Season
Straight up: 35-26-2
Against the spread: 32-31
