Another week, another mediocre performance from me in the NFL picks. I’m a notoriously slow starter, but a game over .500 after the first month of the season doesn’t give me much momentum heading into October. If there’s any solace to be had it’s that I’m not alone. All of us in the NFL pick-sphere have been spinning our wheels early on. Andrew Lynch from Fox Sports has the best record coming into this week, but even he’s just 42-21.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio and I have been simpatico all season and have the same record. Tim Cowlishaw from the Dallas Morning News is dead last with a 28-36 record and right above him is the gold standard for bad picks, CBS Sports’ Will Brinson at 31-32. Time to put some distance between me and #BrinsonStrong.
Byes: Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars
Sunday Early Games
New England at Cleveland (+10.5)
Anything short of a total Browns (0-4) curb stomp by Tom Brady and the Patriots (3-1) might send the entire New England area into wicked awesome cardiac arrests. Brady has spent the last month naked on a beach in Italy and maybe not working on this whole NFL football thing that he’s been pretty decent at for a decade or so. Against a better opponent it might matter. So Sunday it won’t. Patriots 31, Browns 20
Philadelphia at Detroit (+3.5)
The Lions (1-3) have some good players on both sides of the ball, but it’s just single guys here and there with no cohesion, no real team and definitely no real coach. It’s like Smokey’s line in Friday. Ya’ll ain’t never got two things that match. The Eagles (3-0), on the other hand, seem to have a solid defense and a legit offense led by Carson Wentz. Eagles 24, Lions 16
Chicago at Indianapolis (-4.5)
I don’t get this line. I mean, sure, I like the Colts (1-3), but enough to put 4.5 points on it? Seems like a stretch with that defense. Meanwhile the Bears (1-3) actually look like they’re playing better with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. No sir, I don’t like it. Colts 23, Bears 20
Tennessee at Miami (-3.5)
No one is happier to see Mike Mularkey and the Tennessee Titans (1-3) head his way than Adam Gase. The Dolphins (1-3) don’t have a talent advantage over a similarly under-performing Tennessee team, but Gase, even though he’s been a disappointment in Miami so far, can outcoach Mularkey by just showing up with his pants on right. Dolphins 20, Titans 17
Washington at Baltimore (-3.5)
The Redskins (2-2) probably feel pretty good about their escape from September with a respectable record. The Ravens (3-1) are about to ruin all that. Ravens 34, Redskins 17
Houston at Minnesota (-7)
Bill O’Brien vs Mike Zimmer would be one of the most lopsided NFL coaching match ups of the early season if not for O’Brien matching wits with Bill Belichick a couple of weeks ago. The Texans (3-1) can probably lose eight games and win the AFC South this year. The Vikings (4-0) have their sites set a little higher. Vikings 27, Texans 16
New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-7)
Brandon Marshall of the Jets (1-3) wants to go down on the boat with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Steelers (3-1) will be playing the part of the iceberg this week. Steelers 38, Jets 17
Sunday Late Games
Atlanta at Denver (-4.5)
The Falcons (3-1) will be the best offense the Broncos (4-0) will have faced up to this point. If this game was in Atlanta, I’d probably pick the Falcons. Instead, I’m going with Denver, but I don’t like the points. Broncos 24, Falcons 20
Cincinnati at Dallas (+2)
Is this the week Dak Prescott loses the NFL glass slipper? Does Tony Romo put that same slipper on, crack it and cut a major artery causing him to miss the rest of the season? I don’t get this line. I’ve watched both these teams play a lot. The Bengals (2-2) are not as good as they were last season and the Cowboys (3-1) are probably the best they’ve been in the last 10 years. Cowboys 27, Bengals 24
Buffalo at Los Angeles (-1)
Here it is, Jeff Fisher. This is your chance to prove that you and the Rams (3-1) have put the 7-and-9 bullshit behind you for good. The Bills (2-2) are ripe for the taking, coached by one of your shitty coaching fraternity brothers, Rex Ryan. The fact that this line has moved 1.5 points toward Buffalo since Tuesday shows how poorly the sportsbooks think of your coaching, Jeff. Why don’t you prove us all wrong? Rams 23, Bills 19
San Diego at Oakland (-3.5)
Mike McCoy got so mad at the Chargers (1-3) after they blew the Saints game, he nearly fired himself. The Raiders (3-1) are trying to stay a game up on Kansas City in what suddenly looks like a competitive AFC West. Well, you know, except your team, Mike. Dust off that resume. Raiders 38, Chargers 34
Sunday Night
New York Giants at Green Bay (-7)
There are two teams that always seem to bring out the best in Eli Manning; the Patriots and the Packers (2-1). The Giants (2-2) have made a habit of ruining the day at Lambeau with Eli slinging the ball around. The news cycle seems to be going against New York and they’ve lost two straight. No one thinks they can win in Green Bay. That’s exactly why they will. Giants 24, Packers 23
Monday Night
Tampa Bay at Carolina (EVEN)
This game has lost a little of its luster with the possibility of Cam Newton not playing for the Panthers (1-3). I’ve made my opinion clear that he shouldn’t. The Bucs (1-3) started the season with so much promise, but Jameis Winston hasn’t so much regressed, but been asked to do too much. I think Derek Anderson can get the job done for Carolina under the lights. Panthers 24, Bucs 20
This week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 1-0
Last week
Straight up: 8-7
Against the spread: 6-9
Season
Straight up: 32-31
Against the spread: 24-39
