If it seems weird to get my week one NFL predictions before I’ve even unveiled my season predictions, just know this; I don’t play by the man’s rules. I’m trying to dole out all this NFL just a few pieces at a time, like a drug dealer offering bad football picks.
Though I already took a loss this week picking the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New England Patriots, I don’t hold that against myself. My observations were based on the talent I saw on the field and the Steelers’ offensive talent should have scored 42 points. Todd Haley’s playcalling, on the other hand, scored 21 (with two missed field goals).
Tom Brady put down a 143.8 passer rating in a game that saw him toss four touchdowns and no interceptions. He was sharp, on target and just like he showed in last year’s Super Bowl, doesn’t really need under-inflated footballs to be one of the best quarterbacks on Earth. I’d like to think that stings him a little bit.
Tom Brady was in standard Tom Brady form tonight: pic.twitter.com/pyeuKQLV2Z
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) September 11, 2015
The Steelers defense looked as inept as everybody but me predicted, making no effort at all to stop Rob Gronkowski and, with his first touchdown, going with the avant garde decision to not even put a man on him at all.
GRONK.
SPIKE.Welcome back, football.#PITvsNEhttp://t.co/26dTnIWsH7
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) September 11, 2015
I had a decent straight up picks season last year, going 162-101-1, but not nearly as good against the spread at 126-139.
If you’re in a survivor pool, I’ve got to tell you, this is a bad Week One for you. With great match-ups across the board, it’s tough to pick any slam dunks here but I’ll try to help if I can.
Early Games
Green Bay at Chicago (+6)
Early this week Mike McCarthy said to a group of fans at a luncheon that the Packers would “kick Chicago’s ass” it caused little stir, especially in Chicago. New Bears head coach John Fox said, when asked about it, “I looked at the tape. They should be confident.” McCarthy’s confidence comes from the Packers’ past performance against the Bears. My confidence in picking them comes from the fact that McCarthy is no longer calling the plays. The Pick: Packers 34, Bears 24 (survivor pool pick)
Kansas City at Houston (-1)
A -1 line is barely a line at all and it always weird me out to see them. Why not just go with a a pick-em? Both these teams battled down to the wire for a playoff spot last season and both were left outside in the cold like Michael Moore trying to fit through a submarine hatch. Here’s what we do know about this game. Both quarterbacks are going to be sacked a lot. Ryan Mallett may not be on the bench for long after all. The Pick: Texans 20, Chiefs 17
Cleveland at New York (-3)
One of these teams finished near .500 last season and the other had a Top Six pick and by the line, you’d never guess which was which. It just goes to show you the faith that the oddsmakers have in Todd Bowles and the lack of faith those same oddsmakers have in Mike Pettine and Josh McCown. Which makes it even crazier that both those guys still have jobs. The Pick: Jets 16, Browns 10
Indianapolis at Buffalo (+2)
Stephon Gilmore and Mario Williams are both banged up and that could be trouble for the Bills in this one. On offense, LeSean McCoy won’t be 100 percent either and there’s even some rumors he won’t play. Either way, this Bills team isn’t in the position to take on a potential Super Bowl team in Week One and that line just shows the respect people have for Rex Ryan and the moves the Bills have made this preseason. Andrew Luck is already starting the season with that patchy Wolverine beard that usually doesn’t show up until November, so he literally already has his game face on. The Pick: Colts 45, Bills 23
Miami at Washington (+3)
Are they kidding with this +3? I can’t be the only person that’s seen the Redskins tire fire smoking over the horizon all season. Don’t these oddsmakers know that Harvard picked the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl? Yeah, I don’t buy that either but they’ll kill the Redkins. The Pick: Dolphins 38, Redskins 13 (survivor pool pick)
Carolina at Jacksonville (+3)
Here we see what a real +3 looks like. The Jaguars are an improved team that will just be overmatched by the Panthers and the Fudrucker’s night clean-up crew they’ll be fielding as wide receivers. Jonathan Stewart should be motivated after seeing what DeAngelo Williams did for the Steeleers Thursday night and, yes, I’m talking about the purple streaks in his dreads. The Pick: Panthers 17, Jaguars 13 (survivor pool pick)
Seattle at St. Louis (+4)
For the lack of respect the Rams and Jeff Fisher have gotten from pundits this offseason, the oddsmakers don’t see as down on them. The NFC champs come in as a 4-point road favorite. The Rams are one of the few teams that can play toe-to-toe with the Seahawks on any Sunday… later in the season. For whatever reason, Jeff Fisher’s teams in St. Louis always look worse than Casper Van Dien’s IMDB page and the preseason penalty issues don’t give me any reason to think that’s changed. The Pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 23
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Late Games
New Orleans at Arizona (-2)
This is it. Mark it down. Or, you know, don’t since it’s right here on the internet already marked down for you, but this is officially my first upset pick of the week. Bruce Arians is a cocky coach and he has reason to be. He’s 21-12 in two years with the Cards and made the playoffs. There’s only one problem; he did it with a team about to qualify for its AARP membership. The fun is over in Arizona for at least a while. The Pick: Saints 31, Cardinals 20
Detroit at San Diego (-2)
If the Chargers are going to solidify themselves as a potential playoff team and AFC West champion, this is exactly the kind of game they have to win. Luckily they’re facing Jim Caldwell who’s currently struggling to scratch his nose with both hands trapped inside Pringles cans. The Pick: Chargers 27, Lions 17
Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3)
If you look at these two rosters, these teams should not be evenly matched at all. The Bucs have stars at the skill positions on offense and two legitimate Pro Bowl players on defense in Levonte David and Gerald McCoy. Three points in that respect should be an insult. I’m going to make it worse by picking the Titans to win. The Pick: Tennessee 17, Bucs 14
Cincinnati at Oakland (+3)
The Bengals come into this game healthy for the first time in a season with their full defensive line intact. Geno Atkins will introduce himself to Derek Carr so often in this game that Carr will need to get a prenatal appointment Monday morning. The Pick: Bengals 27, Raiders 16 (survivor pool pick)
Baltimore at Denver (-4)
I want you to look at that line. I want you to think about this game. The Broncos, looking at their recent history, are probably a fair four-point favorite. Now, imagine how you’d bet if you saw this game on the schedule in the playoffs. You’d take the Ravens and not think twice about it. I think this entire season will be a playoff season for Peyton Manning. In other words, it’s going to be bad. The Pick: Ravens 27, Broncos 24
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Sunday Night
New York at Dallas (-6)
It’s Bad Comedian Eli Manning versus Arts and Crafts Tony Romo in a game that might see both teams combine for 100 points. I don’t think it will be that pretty, but it’ll still be exciting. The running game will be a problem for the Cowboys and the Giants are ready to get back to the postseason and scare everybody in the NFL outside of Baltimore. Break out the maccaroni and the glue, Arts and Craftsy. Preheat the over for a fresh batch of Crownies. You’ll need to express your feelings after this one. The Pick: Giants 34, Cowboys 30
Monday Night
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3)
What we’ll have here in the Monday night opener is a potential playoff preview that I think will probably go exactly the same way. The Falcons are better and they’ll win their share of games this season, just not this one. The Pick: Eagles 38, Falcons 34
Minnesota at San Francisco (+2)
The long bay-area nightmare of the 49ers 2015 season begins as the late game on Monday night, just in time to give everyone in Northern California nightmares. You can’t wake up from this one. The Pick: Vikings 41, 49ers 19
This Week
Against the spread: 0-1
Straight up: 0-1
