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Friday Afternoon Quarterback: Wild Card Round Spread Picks and Locks

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the most futile weekend in all of sports, but it can produce some of the most exciting games of the postseason. Yes, Wild Card Weekend is upon us, where eight teams will battle it out for the honor of losing in the divisional round a week from now. You have to go back to the 2012-13 season to find the last team that played in the Wild Card round (Baltimore Ravens) that made it to the Super Bowl. For the NFC, you have to go back another year, to the 2011-12 season to find one (New York Giants). In both cases, those teams went on to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. So that’s something to consider.

Here’s your brackets, with a few facts and Friday Afternoon Quarterback picks.

Related: NFL Betting Guide | Wild Card Odds

SATURDAY

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1, O/U: 48)

  • The Texans have made the playoffs three of the last four seasons under head coach Bill O’Brien with a record of 1-2.
  • This game will mark Deshaun Watson’s first playoff start in the NFL. His last “postseason game” was the NCAA College Football Championship game nearly two years to the day from this kickoff, Jan. 9, 2017. Watson led Clemson to a 35-31 come-from-behind victory over Alabama, passing for 430 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for 43 yards and a score.
  • Andrew Luck is making his fourth playoff appearance with Indianapolis and the first since 2014. He’s 3-3 in the postseason with a 56.5 completion percentage, 1,829 passing yards and nine touchdowns with 12 interceptions.

This is the marquee quarterback matchup of the week with Andrew Luck facing off against Deshaun Watson. It’s Watson’s first playoff game, but Luck hasn’t exactly dominated in the postseason. I’ve left Bill O’Brien alone this season and deservedly so. There’s a chance he’s Ron Rivera’ed this thing and actually figured out how to coach. It’s rare. So rare that Rivera is the only guy in my lifetime that started out as a disaster and turned it around. I’m doing it, God help me. Bill O’Brien, I believe in you! (Now watch them lose by 50). Texans 31, Colts 30

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2, O/U: 43)

  • The Seahawks have won their last three matchups with the Dallas Cowboys and four of their last five.
  • This will be Dak Prescott’s second playoff game in his career. The Cowboys lost to the Green Bay Packers, 34-31 back in January, 2017 in the divisional round. Prescott was exceptional in the loss, completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 302 yards, three touchdowns and one pick.
  • Russell Wilson is 8-4 in the postseason with two Super Bowl appearances and one championship already under his belt. He’s completed 61.6 percent of his passes in the playoffs with 2,777 yards, 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has never, in five different playoff runs, been one-and-done in the tournament.

The fact that Wilson has never been one-and-done is significant, but in each of those playoff appearances he’s brought a much stouter defense with him. Now, the better defense and running game is on the opposite side of the field. I’m not ready to peg Jason Garrett as a Ron Rivera’ed coach just yet, but this one really shouldn’t be close. Cowboys 27, Seahawks 17

SUNDAY

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, O/U: 42)

  • The Chargers have not made the postseason since 2013. Philip Rivers is 4-5 lifetime in the playoffs and has gone one-and-done twice. Rivers has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,165 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions in the tournament.
  • This is Baltimore’s first playoff appearance since 2014 when they made it to the divisional round, but lost 35-31 at the New England Patriots
  • Lamar Jackson is 6-1 as the Ravens’ starting quarterback. In that span, he’s only passed for more than 200 yards once and only surpassed a 60 percent completion rate twice. He’s never completed more than 14 passes in an NFL game.

This line just keeps moving Baltimore’s way and Philip Rivers must be shaking his head every time he sees it. Yes, the Ravens beat the Chargers a few weeks ago, but, if anything, I think that gives Los Angeles the advantage. They know what’s coming. I mean, with the NCAA Division II offense the Ravens are running, everyone should know what’s coming. This is my upset pick of the week. Chargers 24, Ravens 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-6.5, O/U: 41)

  • Before last season, the Eagles had made three consecutive playoff appearances (2009, 2010 and 2013) and lost in the Wild Card round all three times, including Nick Foles’ first postseason start in 2013.
  • This is the Bears first playoff appearance since 2010. That season Chicago made it all the way to the NFC Championship before losing to the Green Bay Packers, 21-14.
  • Chicago is riding an eight-game winning streak into the playoffs, the longest active streak in the NFL.

If you read my NFC Wild Card preview, you’re already spoiled here. As the week’s wore on, I’m not so sure I’ve talked myself out of a complete Eagles upset. That first playoff appearance can be a stunner for a young quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky and if any team is coming in believing it can win, it’s the Eagles. Still, I’m playing it safe and I’ll probably regret it. Bears 21, Eagles 20

Last week

Straight up: 11-5

Against the spread: 8-8

Season

Straight up: 153-101-2

Against the spread: 125-131

Written by Adam Greene

Adam Greene is a writer and photographer based out of East Tennessee. His work has appeared on Cracked.com, in USA Today, the Associated Press, the Chicago Cubs Vineline Magazine, AskMen.com and many other publications.

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