Frosted will try to have a chilling effect on his Whitney Stakes foes at Saratoga Saturday but he will need a hot pace on the front end to get it done.
We’ll get into the exploits and successes of Frosted down the line but first let’s address the pace of the Grade 1 $1.25 million Whitney at 9 furlongs.
Noble Bird brings legit speed to the table and he has been on a good race/bad race mode since the Ben Ali in April. He was troubled in the Churchill Downs finale and love the fact he has speed but doesn’t need the lead to win.
Proven at this demanding distance, how Noble Bird comes out of the gate will be pivotal as to how the Whitney unfolds. If he can break and relax, he could get very brave but if not Frosted will try to have a chilling effect on his rivals.
The concern for Noble Bird is what the strategy will be for the other speed in the race, Effinex. That runner is a high-quality performer. He has not ducked anybody in his career, he hooked the monster Liam’s Map here last year in the Woodward, and he has the speed to push Noble Bird every step of the way.
Effinex has class too as he completed the Breeders’ Cup Classic exacta last year running second to the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Effinex has also been keeping good company. The horse he beat a length in the Oaklawn Handicap in April, returned to take the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita with a 109 Beyer.
This son of Mineshaft has a penchant for finding the wire and his pace-setting and tracking style will give him the first run on the deep closers in this race.
El Kabeir is one of those deep closers. He was flattered recently when the winner of his last race repeated in a Grade 2 event at Monmouth Park last Sunday. One could easily envision this runner sitting 5 or 6 lengths off the lead, biding his time and then screaming for room at the top of the lane. Even if things are perfect for El Kabeir, Frosted will try to have a chilling effect on this rival and the others.
Upstart is another deep closer. He has been sidelined but is repeatedly proven fresh and he showed he can step up with the big boys when he beat Frosted in the Holy Bull Stakes last year. The concern about this runner is that he has been handled by a number of today’s opponents.
Comfort represents the ‘wise guy’ horse. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who is looking for his 4th win in the Whitney. The fact of the matter is that although this colt has won three races in a row, the company Comfort has been keeping has not been elite. The horse that ran second to Comfort in the May finale is 0 for 2 since.
Which leads us to the one to beat Frosted. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won the Whitney with Invasor in 2006, Frosted was only 2 and a quarter-lengths away from American Pharoah at Saratoga last year in the Travers.
Frosted went into the Dubai World Cup in March on his game but he had the misfortune of hooking another true star, California Chrome. That racer exited the World Cup to win the Grade 2 San Diego with a 111 Beyer.
A son of the classy sire Tapit, Frosted is also at the top of his form right now. In his last win in the Met Mile his margin of victory was the biggest in the history of the Met Mile while he earned a gaudy 123 Beyer.
Frosted should be able to settle early, his rider Joel Rosario can watch Effinex and Noble Bird duke it out on the lead and then he can set Frosted down while winning with authority down the stretch.
If all the ducks are in a row, the concept that Frosted will try to have a chilling effect on his foes will come to fruition.
Good luck.
