In their final home game of the season, the VCU Rams (16-13, 8-8 A10) host the George Mason Patriots (14-15, 8-8 A10) at Stuart Siegel Center. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 28, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 149.5 points with VCU set as a 7-point favorite.
George Mason Patriots vs. VCU Rams ATS Prediction
The Patriots will be hoping for a similar result after barely hanging on to beat the Massachusetts Minutemen in their last matchup, 78-76. George Mason’s 30.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Massachusetts, who had a mark of 24.4. The Patriots’ mark was above their season average of 27.6. Jaire Grayer fueled George Mason with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
The last time the Rams played, they were beaten by the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, 68-63. St. Bonaventure’s 0.273 free throw rate was their biggest strength over VCU, who had a rate of 0.065. The Bonnies’ mark was below their season average of 0.300, while the Rams’ was below their season average of 0.200. With 20 points on 8-for-16 shooting, Justin Tillman was VCU’s high scorer.
Getting to the line could be scarce for VCU in this matchup. The Rams currently rank 318th in the NCAA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.195, while George Mason ranks 88th in FTA rate allowed (0.209).
George Mason holds records of 14-15 straight up (SU) and 12-13 against the spread (ATS). Of the Patriots’ 25 games that accepted bets, 15 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, VCU is 16-13 SU and 12-13 ATS. Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Rams games, with 13 overs compared to 12 unders.
Justin Kier has averaged 14.6 points and 5.4 rebounds over the last five games for George Mason.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Khris Lane scored a game-high 25 points and the Rams defeated the Patriots 84-76, covering as 5-point favorites. He also put up 12 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 160 points, which was 10 points above the projected point total of 150 points. VCU had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (52.4 vs. 20.0). George Mason, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (26-34; 76.5 percent).
George Mason Patriots at VCU Rams ATS Pick
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – VCU, ATS Winner – VCU, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, George Mason is 8-5 ATS with 8 overs and 5 unders.
At home, VCU is 7-6 ATS with 9 unders and 4 overs.
VCU ranks 68th in assists per game (15.3) while George Mason ranks 242nd (11.8).
The Rams rank 49th in blocks allowed per game (2.8) while the Patriots rank 193rd (4.6).
VCU ranks 107th in three pointers attempted per game (23.3) while George Mason ranks 242nd in three pointers allowed per game (24.2).
The Rams average 36.6 rebounds per game, which ranks 98th in the nation. The Patriots rank 193rd in rebounds allowed per game (35.8).
George Mason averages 6.0 steals per game, which ranks 141st in the nation. VCU ranks 199th in steals allowed per game (7.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, George Mason is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
VCU is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Patriots have outscored opponents by an average of 4.6 points in their last five games. For the season, George Mason has been defeated by an average of 3.4 points.
During their last five games, the Rams have scored an average of 70.4 points per game (5.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 76.8 points per game (1.5 above their season average).
