As part of our weekly series, Get More Sports recently caught up with former NFL player Glenn Gronkowski. Every week during the 2018 season, we’ll produce an exclusive Q&A with Glenn, whose experience, familiarity and connections within the league, its coaches and its players allow him to provide unparalleled insight and analysis.
In this week’s edition (NFL Preseason Week 4), Glenn discusses this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks as well as several other NFL prop bets. You can read Glenn Gronkowski’s weekly Q&A here.
All odds are subject to change and courtesy of BetDSI.com, which is open to U.S. players and accepts credit cards.
GMS: Looking at the top of this props sheet, which rookie quarterback is going over his projected start total and why?
Related: The Gronkcast Episode 4
Gronk: I think Baker Mayfield. I can’t believe it is only 4.5 — I think he will at least play eight games. The Browns have a tough start to the season and will most likely begin with some losses and put pressure on the Brown’s front office to make a change. Mayfield is the franchise quarterback and taking him first overall shows that they believe in his potential and I think they will be the quick to pull the trigger and put him in the game over Tyrod Taylor.
GMS: And which rookie quarterback prop would you bet the under on in terms of starts, if any?
Gronk: Josh Allen. The offensive line for Buffalo has been struggling so far with the retirements of Richie Incognito and Eric Woods. Although I think he starts some games, I don’t think he will be over 8.5 because I think the O-line will cause too many problems for a rookie quarterback to overcome. Although I think he is a great quarterback, I think they need to build up their O-Line first to see his potential. I think once McCarron comes back from injury he could possibly take over the starting job if the Bills are struggling.
GMS: Speaking of quarterbacks fresh on the NFL scene, we haven’t seen much of Patrick Mahomes in regular season action, but what is your candid assessment of him and how he will perform in 2018?
Gronk: Mahomes can sling the ball and has shown huge potential this preseason. I am excited to watch him play and with the players he has around him I think it is very similar to his college days at Texas Tech because they are fast players who can catch balls and make plays. I think Mahomes is in a perfect position to succeed and think he will live up to the hype this year. In fact, he already was throwing 70 yard passes for touchdowns and that shows that he has a connection with his receivers and trusts them to be making plays in triple coverage.
GMS: Going back to some of the props BetDSI released this week, which is your favorite quarterback prop bet and why?
Gronk: Jameis Winston under 3,900 yards. In his two full seasons he has thrown for under 4,100 yards. In his last season, in which he played only 13 games, he threw for 3,500. This year, at most, he can play 13 games because of his suspension. I don’t think there is any chance at all for Winston to hit that mark. I don’t think that’s because he isn’t a great quarterback and leader, I just don’t think he has enough games due to the suspension to hit 3,900. Even the great quarterbacks would have a tough time averaging 300 yards a game, which is what Winston would have to do.
GMS: What about the running back props, which one jumps out to you in that set?
Gronk: I’m gonna go with the rookie Saquon Barkley and say he hits over 1,150 yards. Saquon is a beast who will break tackles and make the extra yards and help the Giants rebound a little bit this year. I think this will help open up the pass game as well. But it’s tough these days in the NFL to get over 1,150 yards because the backs split time, but I think Barkley will be the main back and hit the over on this one.
GMS: And finally how about the wideout props, any projected receiver stat you would target?
Gronk: I like the over on Tyreek Hill. I really like Mahomes. Hill has shown the explosiveness to get behind defensive backs and Mahomes has the arm to get him the ball. Hill has the potential to bring any pass thrown to him to the house and I expect to see some big 50-yard-or more receptions this year and think he will easily surpass 1,000 receiving yards this year.
GMS: You can get +1700 odds on a team going 0-16 or 16-0 this season. Is that going to happen?
Gronk: Absolutely not. Those odds are horrible. Sixteen games are just too many and I could see it happening if it was back in the day with a 12-game season, but there is no chance this happens in a 16-game season this year. I think the odds should be +5000 for either of these to happen and with the odds this low I do not see any reason to take this bet at all, especially with injuries happening every week anybody can win or lose.
Related: Betting Q&As with Chris Gronkowski
GMS: A more in-depth question for a final one of the preseason. We always hear talk about the possibility of Alabama (or the NCAA’s best team) being able to beat the worst team in the NFL, which is just a load of bulls–t. Looking at Preseason Week 4, when a lot of teams will have their second- and third-stringers out there for the majority of the game, if you were an oddsmaker what kind of spread would you create for the Browns backups vs. the Alabama Crimson Tide?
Gronk: If it was Week 4 of the preseason I would give Alabama a -7 spread. None of the starters are playing and I doubt Mayfield plays much, if at all. Most of the players playing this week will see their football days come to end except for a select few. On the other side, Alabama has players that will be on NFL squads in the near future. Most of them would probably be on an NFL team already if they didn’t have to wait three years to enter the league. Therefore, I think they would get the win against players in Week 4 of the preseason. If it was a regular season game against the starters of the Browns, I don’t think they would have any chance and would make the spread Browns -13, especially with the talent the Browns have picked up this year and they appear to be on the same page and making plays. I don’t think it would be even close against the starters.
The Gronkcast Episodes:
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 9: Inside The NFL: Featuring Rob Gronkowski’s bodyguard Bobby Goons
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 8: Inside The NFL: Inside A Players Life in the NFL
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 7: Inside The NFL: An Interview with WWE superstar Mojo Rawley
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 6: Inside The NFL: NFL Week 2, BulletProof Picks, NFL Head Coaches
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 5: Inside The NFL: A Day In The Life of An NFL Player, NFL Week 1
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 4: Inside The NFL: NFL Betting Strategies, The Best NFL Prop Bets
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 3: Inside The NFL: What It’s Like To Be A Rookie In The NFL
